Shaggy
Member
Yeahs that's a lot of early SE motion. If that's right then a father southeast landfall would be expected. Short term motion so we'll know soon enough if it's right
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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
From the 5 PM NHC discussion. I'd call this evolution non-trivial.
"Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This
equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a
stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves
across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton."
rburrel2
Member
Yeah the big issue will be as it nears Florida it will become increasingly post tropical and that always expands the wind field. If you notice as soon as it clears Florida the NHC has it post tropical
Yep. And looking at the models it seems like there will be quite a strong surge along the East coast of northern Florida that’s being enhanced with the transition. That area rarely gets a strong surge from a hurricane.
18Z Icon landfalls like the 12Z at Sarasota but it is delayed til very late Wed night.
lexxnchloe
Member
Henry2326
Member
Nam.....Thursday landfall......North.
It wasn't long ago that we were expecting a storm to move on an anomalous ENE trajectory into the Florida peninsula. Now it looks to be approaching the coast on a more traditional NE to NNE path. This alone makes forecasting the ultimate landfall location more challenging.
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Here we go again with the forecasted strength increasing. Expected to become a cat 4 and hopefully weaken to a cat 3 at landfall. Still, that's a major hurricane, and have to see if it actually weakens
Fwiw here are the TC/STC tracks since 1851 for storms that form 10/1-10:
GFS is significantly slower so far thru 57
NOAA synoptic recon data will be ingested into the 00Z runs. I view the 18Z runs as Happy Hour.
@pcbjr and other Hogtownites are probably a little nervous seeing this 18Z GFS track. This landfall near Crystal River is not til 11AM EDT on Thu! Those earlier CMC Fri landfalls aren’t looking quite as crazy as they were.
Recon inbound shortly. I think they'll find about a 100mph CAT 2 cane before the mission is done.
The end-of-day visible presentation is impressive.
The end-of-day visible presentation is impressive.
Looks like 978 Mb XTRP on the first pass. 60 knots NW quad.
Stormsfury
Member
2nd pass looks a couple mb's deeper and near 85kt flight level winds
This new burst of convection may send this thing to the moon overnight
Couple of things to watch. First the lead wave/ system is going to want to suppress the ridge out front which would want to trend Milton SE. If more separation occurs though there will be a potential for height rises behind the lead wave ahead of the incoming conus trough which would lead to a NW trend.
Second I'm not sure how beneficial it may be in the grand scheme but it seems like there's going to be a race between landfall and the start of ET and the system getting a little more ragged. Like I said it may end up not making a huge difference but hopefully it can help
Second I'm not sure how beneficial it may be in the grand scheme but it seems like there's going to be a race between landfall and the start of ET and the system getting a little more ragged. Like I said it may end up not making a huge difference but hopefully it can help
Stormsfury
Member
The frontal low if moving east in tandem with Milton would bump the ridge ahead up a little but it would also should serve to also keep Milton moving a bit more easterly. The other thing to watch is the shortwave trough that the GFS kind of digs a little, which it was showing on the earlier runs, while most other modeling kept more zonal flow over the Deep South
lexxnchloe
Member
Much stronger than 12z
Brent
Member
Bout to get real spooky I fear
DOWN TO 978MB NOW
| 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 Location: 22.4°N 93.1°W Moving: E at 7 mph Min pressure: 977 mb Max sustained: 90 mph |
Brent
Member
Don't see an inland M much 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Milton is looking more ominous tonight. The IR sat shows an expanding CDO and continued organization. The situation for FL is looking more ominous. Landfall as a major with increasing forward speed will expand the damage inland across the entire FL peninsula. This severely threatens central FL and presents coastal threats of wind and surge damage on the east coast.
They are really not ready for this on the west coast of FL after Helene. Tampa Bay - St. Pete area hasn't experienced this kind of impact in a lifetime. It's time to send some prayers up for our FL brothers.
Sctvman
Member
Probably Wilma was the last one I can remember with RI like this
Brent
Member
Yeah 1848 nearly every home in Tampa was destroyed so yeah...
And that was with hardly any population. The article about 1848 mentions uninhabited Florida lol
Snow_chaser
Member
Is it supposed to get bigger or stay about the same size wise?
Brent
Member
It's gonna get bigger because towards landfall it transitions
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
Was you around then Brent? Lol Just kidding buddy
Brent
Member
Tampa had 974 people in 1850. Hard to imagine...
itryatmanysportsespgolf70
Member
We definitely can't say the season stayed slow
As stated above, classic RI look. I think it intensifies to high 920s/low 930s until it has an eyewall replacement cycle and plateaus a little before weakening.
The forecasting conundrum will be how quickly it weakens. This is a hostile look for a storm:
It will be dry- a lot of board members will see real fall mornings this week. That airmass will surround Milton by the time it is approaching Florida. The mixture of shear and eye wall replacements will make dry air intrusions easy - Milton will be in decay by the time it approaches Tampa. When this decay starts probably determines whether this storm is just "bad" or "generationally bad" for Tampa.
But yes it will put on a show before that.
The forecasting conundrum will be how quickly it weakens. This is a hostile look for a storm:
It will be dry- a lot of board members will see real fall mornings this week. That airmass will surround Milton by the time it is approaching Florida. The mixture of shear and eye wall replacements will make dry air intrusions easy - Milton will be in decay by the time it approaches Tampa. When this decay starts probably determines whether this storm is just "bad" or "generationally bad" for Tampa.
But yes it will put on a show before that.
Brent
Member
Yeah the only thing about that is I remember Katrina falling apart too
I think Tampas best chance is it going south. Offshore flow...