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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

12Z UKMET is out: I use mainly for track not intensity though it continues to trend stronger as it catches up like usual. It initialized its position well and landfalls further N than the 0Z’s Naples with it near or possibly slightly N of Ft. Myers per my estimate based on the text (see below). I’ll have to see the 6 hour maps later when they’re released to better pinpoint its landfall point but it’s clearly further N though still S of the ICON/GFS:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.10.2024

TROPICAL STORM MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 95.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2024 0 22.5N 95.0W 1003 30
0000UTC 07.10.2024 12 22.0N 93.2W 1000 32
1200UTC 07.10.2024 24 21.6N 91.6W 997 37
0000UTC 08.10.2024 36 22.1N 89.3W 993 40
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 23.0N 87.2W 989 41
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 24.2N 85.1W 987 42
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 26.2N 82.7W 987 48
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 28.2N 80.1W 990 49
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 29.4N 76.9W 987 71
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 30.9N 70.9W 992 53
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 30.6N 65.4W 1000 54
0000UTC 12.10.2024 132 30.6N 59.8W 1007 36
1200UTC 12.10.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING
 
SnowedIn1 said:
I have numerous family members in Bradenton and Tampa.....most of them will not leave during hurricanes.....they are "set" in their ways
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Oh, the family that has been there for a bit has evacuated for one hurricane, but honestly, idk if they would here as they have a generator now.

In all honesty, as I think about it, the aunt that has been there for a year or two probably has no choice but to leave her condo (and she was saying that she'd probably leave under similar circumstances occurring again). She's near water (not the beach though I don't think) and based off the flood warnings, the water has not receded.
 
12Z GEFS tells me these things:

- Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa

- Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational

- GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?
Edit: The answer may be that members are run at lower resolution and thus are mainly weaker than the GFS op. With them weaker, they’re track on further S in the progged atmospheric env.
 
GaWx said:
12Z GEFS tells me these things:

- Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa

- Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational

- GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?
Click to expand...
I would think intensity. Are the four northern members intense solutions as well?
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I would think intensity. Are the four northern members intense solutions as well?
Click to expand...

It is weird as it depends on the source. Whereas Pivotal and WxBell don’t show these N members notably stronger vs others, TT does. For whatever reason, TT tends to have lower SLPs for GEFS and perhaps other ensemble members in general. I wonder why. I wouldn’t think that TT, itself, can run them at higher resolution.
 
GaWx said:
12Z UKMET is out: I use mainly for track not intensity though it continues to trend stronger as it catches up like usual. It initialized its position well and landfalls further N than the 0Z’s Naples with it near or possibly slightly N of Ft. Myers per my estimate based on the text (see below). I’ll have to see the 6 hour maps later when they’re released to better pinpoint its landfall point but it’s clearly further N though still S of the ICON/GFS:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.10.2024

TROPICAL STORM MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 95.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2024 0 22.5N 95.0W 1003 30
0000UTC 07.10.2024 12 22.0N 93.2W 1000 32
1200UTC 07.10.2024 24 21.6N 91.6W 997 37
0000UTC 08.10.2024 36 22.1N 89.3W 993 40
1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 23.0N 87.2W 989 41
0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 24.2N 85.1W 987 42
1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 26.2N 82.7W 987 48
0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 28.2N 80.1W 990 49
1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 29.4N 76.9W 987 71
0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 30.9N 70.9W 992 53
1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 30.6N 65.4W 1000 54
0000UTC 12.10.2024 132 30.6N 59.8W 1007 36
1200UTC 12.10.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING
Click to expand...
1728235658109.png
 
GaWx said:
It is weird as it depends on the source. Whereas Pivotal and WxBell don’t show these N members notably stronger vs others, TT does. For whatever reason, TT tends to have lower SLPs for GEFS and perhaps other ensemble members in general. I wonder why. I wouldn’t think that TT, itself, can run them at higher resolution.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure. I pretty much use RAL and TT for all tropical weather.

Regarding intensity, both HAFS A and B along with the HWRF bring Milton to CAT 5 intensity by 48 hours! That 200 Mb steering is of great interest to me regarding a further north path into Florida.
 
I think the motion the next 24 hrs will be telling if we see a north of tampa or direct Tampa or south of Tampa landfall. Any southerly of just due east will really be telling.
 
12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z
 
GaWx said:
12Z GEFS tells me these things:

- Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa

- Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational

- GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?
Edit: The answer may be that members are run at lower resolution and thus are mainly weaker than the GFS op. With them weaker, they’re track on further S in the progged atmospheric env.
Click to expand...
The GFS op has a more stout WAR and has a stronger shortwave trough over Southern Mississippi/Alabama which digs harder, where the rest of the modeling is more zonal flow across the region.
 
deltadog03 said:
You can see the press from that short wave. It's not digging as much as yesterday, but you can see why this doesn't have a lot of wiggle room north in the shorter term.

View attachment 152716
Click to expand...

Chris and others,
Watch that area of convection in the E GOM. Model consensus is suggesting that COULD spawn a shortlived TC as it moves E to off the FL E coast. Besides affecting stats, I and others are thinking that could potentially have a nontrivial influence of some kind(s) on Milton.
 
GaWx said:
Chris and others,
Watch that area of convection in the E GOM. Model consensus is suggesting that COULD spawn a shortlived TC as it moves E to off the FL E coast. Besides affecting stats, I and others are thinking that could potentially have a nontrivial influence of some kind(s) on Milton.
Click to expand...
There is a clear low-level circulation near 26N 87W. It's highly sheared but it looks pretty vigorous with banding evident to the SE. IDK what to make of this but you've put it on my radar.
 
GaWx said:
12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z
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Now I can see the 6 hour JMA maps. Today’s 12Z JMA is actually close to a Tampa ENE to N of Cape Canaveral path vs being near a Ft. Myers E to Jupiter path yesterday. That’s ~100/150 miles N of yesterday’s run on W/E coast. Just about all prior runs were hitting SW FL.
 
Models were showing these dual lows the other day and having difficulty in resolving which one would be dominant. I want to say the GFS actually showed both with some development at one point. I don't think it will change track all that much unless it really blows up
 
Wow! The 18Z ICON drives Milton right to the northern Yucatan coast.

Edited to add, look at Larry's precursor TS off the Florida coast too.
1728248495685.png
 
The size of circulation being shown on the 84hr NAM is a little frightening. It’s the nam, but it does seem like Milton will be quite a large storm by the time it makes landfall in Florida. Even if the core isn’t as intense, that’s prob a net negative for tampa bay/populated areas as the goal posts for a strong surge will be much wider.
 
rburrel2 said:
The size of circulation being shown on the 84hr NAM is a little frightening. It’s the nam, but it does seem like Milton will be quite a large storm by the time it makes landfall in Florida. Even if the core isn’t as intense, that’s prob a net negative for tampa bay/populated areas as the goal posts for a strong surge will be much wider.
Click to expand...

Yeah the big issue will be as it nears Florida it will become increasingly post tropical and that always expands the wind field. If you notice as soon as it clears Florida the NHC has it post tropical

Like Sandy...
 
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