Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

[South AL Wx]

I noticed the surge forecast has been adjusted a bit, with the highest levels forecast just south of Tampa Bay now:

 

[GaWx]

IDK. The EMCF showed this NNE motion for much of the day. No? ICON as well.

The 6Z Euro shows per my eyes a shift back to NE for the 1-2 PM EDT hour. Then back to NNE soon after followed by shift back to NE.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I noticed the surge forecast has been adjusted a bit, with the highest levels forecast just south of Tampa Bay now:

View attachment 153035

That’s a bold map keeping the bay out of the worst of the storm surge. Let’s see if it pays off. Big day boys. Milton on approach

 

[ILMRoss]

That’s a bold map keeping the bay out of the worst of the storm surge. Let’s see if it pays off. Big day boys. Milton on approach

incredibly tough forecast; current forecast + most guidance suggests this but tampa bay defcon 1 scenario still well within margin of error

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Lightening has waned quite a bit in the center and what little there is, is confined to the NE quadrant as one would expect given the current radar presentation.

 

[jrips27]

And we’re off

 

[cyclogent]

Milton definitely has that wobble that resembles a washing machine with an unbalanced load.

 

[GaWx]

That’s a bold map keeping the bay out of the worst of the storm surge. Let’s see if it pays off. Big day boys. Milton on approach

Even an 8–12 foot surge would still be devastating and likely the highest since at least 1921, which was at ~11 feet. One variable will be the timing of the tides. Here are the predicted astronomical tides:

Low at 2:19PM
High at ~6:50AM at ~2.8 ft

Looks like it is projected to landfall only ~2 hours before high tide per the slower Euro but ~5-6 hours before per several others. That could make a 1 foot or so difference as far as highest water level (combo of surge and tide level).

 

[Brick Tamland]

Tornado was on the ground near Fort Lauderdale.

 

[GaWx]

Wouldn’t the highest surge for Tampa Bay be if the eye were to come in just to the north like it did in 1921 rather than right at TB?

 

[deltadog03]

It def. has the NNE jog right now for sure. It amazes me a little still how much different this looks from even 6 hours ago. The shear and dry air is really starting to take its toll it appears. A good thing for sure, but still going to be bad at landfall.

 

[Brick Tamland]

 

[lexxnchloe]

Those are tornado alley type storms. Amazing

 

[GaWx]

928.8 mb extrap from recon per another forum

 

[GaWx]

12Z ICON still right at TB but with 10PM EDT landfall, which is 2 hours earlier than 6Z run’s midnight

 

[SD]

I'm impressed with how resilient it has been so far this morning

 

[jrips27]

HRRR has come a little north into Tampa Bay over the course of the morning

 

[jrips27]

I’m not super well acquainted with tide charts but looks like low tide is this afternoon and then the tide should be rising all the way through landfall correct? That’s not great.

 

[Triplephase93]

I know in Englewood high tide will be 5:45 AM

 

[GaWx]

I’m not super well acquainted with tide charts but looks like low tide is this afternoon and then the tide should be rising all the way through landfall correct? That’s not great.

Yes: Low at 2:19PM
High at ~6:50AM at ~2.8 ft

6Z Euro landfall is ~5AM, which would be pretty close to high tide and would mean potentially increased highest water level due to tide, alone. But 12Z ICON landfall is at 10PM, which is about midway between low and high. So, that would be at least a foot lower vs 6Z Euro for highest water based on tide timing alone.