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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

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Also found a 203 a little bit ago.


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Webberweather53 said:
That observation may have been contaminated though because it was so close to shore & it was raining, so I wouldn't use it outright on the spot to prove anything about whether this was a 4 or 5 without further investigation into that particular reading and SFMR itself (the latter is currently in the process of being reviewed and published in literature). Under sampling bias would be a more legitimate reason to consider upgrading if this observation isn't verified. All else considered it's a tough call but considering cat 5 starts at 136-137 KT and not 140 KT, I would agree we barely made it.
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I'm sure the post season analysis of this will be very interesting to see what they go with. The presentation of the storm is remarkable and one for the history books for sure.
 
The only way to classify this storm is to pour through all the data. And, there will be plenty of qualified people who will do exactly that. No reason to be rooting for a Cat 5.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a little too "cute"/a rookie move move to go out of your way to say this is already a 5 without the post-storm reanalysis being conducted because there's not yet enough conclusive evidence to corroborate either a 4 or 5.
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If it is a Cat5 it barely made it. If it isn’t, it barely missed it. I’m betting it made it but we just don’t know atm. This is an insane storm though. This is up there with the big dogs from the olden days
 
Unless they think is going to be fully extratropical by then, probably wouldn't be a bad idea to extend the TS warnings further inland over NC because there's a ton of complacency. Unfortunately, the NW side won't be utterly devoid of strong, storm-relative winds like Florence.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If it is a Cat5 it barely made it. If it isn’t, it barely missed it. I’m betting it made it but we just don’t know atm. This is an insane storm though. This is up there with the big dogs from the olden days
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Yeah this is in the same general conversation as Camille and Katrina regardless of whether they upgrade or not, hard to believe I'd ever see this again in my lifetime.
 
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