Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

[Webberweather53]

Guess you're smarter than the NHC as well. "...due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the hurricane..."

View attachment 6971

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al14/al142018.discus.014.shtml?

86F is a far cry from 90F when you look at what it does to the kinetic energy of a cyclone. It can mean the difference between an 890 vs a 930 mb category 4 hurricane, certainly yielding a wind difference that's larger than 15 mph.

 

[Webberweather53]

I never said 90F lol. I said approximately 90, as in I didn't feel like looking up the exact number. I'm well aware SSTs weren't 90F.

The point is approximately 90F was an egregious approximation to make when you compare apples-apples given how much of a difference even 1 or 2F makes in a hurricane and the error in wind it can yield is something already on the order of 15-20 mph.

 

[BHS1975]

You could have said mid 80s. I think you where trying to over hype the situation. But don’t worry we will see 90F sea temps very soon as global warming continues to accelerate.


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[BHS1975]

It's called generalization. I'm well aware of what the actual SSTs are. How can you over-hype Micahel btw? Why don't you ask the people in Mexico Beach how much the storm should have been hyped? Great comment.

It could have and will get worse. Sub 900mb storms making landfall are in our near future.


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[Webberweather53]

So why have you not been on a campaign against the NHC for saying > 85F?

Because > 85F is still 86F. Round that up to 90F changes the potential kinetic energy from a stereotypical category 4 hurricane to Gilbert (1988)

 

[Webberweather53]

We already know what the hurricane's strength was, that entire argument is baseless and irrelevant. This was a post-landfall approximation of SSTs, plain and simple. > 85F can be 100F.

It's pointless to state it's greater than 85 knowing they're values closer to 95F being observed that better represent the total field being measured.

 

[Webberweather53]

Exactly. So the NHC was more egregiously wrong than I was. Why don't you start emailing them (I have some contacts) and you can share your beefs with them. I'm sure that'll be a wise career move.

They weren't "more wrong" because SSTs actually were greater than 85 but they weren't approximately 90 like you claimed.

 

[Webberweather53]

>85 as no upper limit. Approximately 90 has an upper limit of 89.9. More wrong. I'm over you, you can believe that.

It would be pointless to go anything more than a degree or two from the actual values we know exist from ships, buoys, and satellites because unlike you the NHC knows the difference in kinetic energy it can mean for a storm.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Boys, guys,men... agree to disagree please, you both are very smart and know more about meteorology then most of us, you both are right and let’s move on or at least give me 5min to make my popcorn.

 

[SimeonNC]

Guys, just stop it.

 

[SimeonNC]

I and the rest of the forum don't want to see either one of you banned, just stop the unnecessary arguing.

 

[Broken024]

Nerd fight

 

[Arcc]

Dadgum, you two need to put each other on ignore.

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol he’s still trying to drag it on.

 

[Webberweather53]

You're just proving my point. That's also real cute of you to delete your original account.

 

[SD]

I can't even get a gif to load on tapatalk about this thread. This sucks

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[SD]

Why are you guys so mad with each other

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[Webberweather53]

Haha I didn't delete my original account, you obviously are having some trouble comprehending what's actually going on here, per usual. But I'll let you in on this, once I'm gone, the board now sees just what a petulant child they're left with.

Good riddance.

 

[MichaelAndrews]

People are dead and you two "professionals" are bickering about moot points. Let it go

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I think it's sometimes better to be of fewer words instead of getting into an argument.

A lot of us are here because weather is a hobby for us and we'd like to learn, instead of reading stretches of an argument.

(PS: Other board, and no not that one that gets blotted out here, had people arguing about the intensity about 6-12 hours after the storm made landfall, it was so stupid.)