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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

SoutheastRidge said:
What we've learned from Florence and Michael is that intensity forecasts are not very reliable. Track is much more reliable.
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Yes and no. The Euro has been honking a fast strengthening hurricane, and the HMON and HWRF have performed very well. The problem is everyone didn't really believe them.
 
Arcc said:
Yes and no. The Euro has been honking a fast strengthening hurricane, and the HMON and HWRF have performed very well. The problem is everyone didn't really believe them.
Click to expand...

same thing last year... the models actually had Harvey same way but nobody believed it
 
Arcc said:
Yes and no. The Euro has been honking a fast strengthening hurricane, and the HMON and HWRF have performed very well. The problem is everyone didn't really believe them.
Click to expand...
It's really quite sad. You just have to have the mentality that every storm has the capability of being a Cat 5.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It's really quite sad. You just have to have the mentality that every storm has the capability of being a Cat 5.
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I'm sure all those years of nothing happening(12 years without a major) probably set people that way too. I know even amateurs I've talked to didn't believe some of the models
 
Brent said:
I'm sure all those years of nothing happening(12 years without a major) probably set people that way too. I know even amateurs I've talked to didn't believe some of the models
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But I would think after the recent devastation in NC that would be fresh on people's minds. I guess people just have the mentality that it will never happen to them.
 
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