snowlover91
Member
I see signs of the storm about to make a turn to the NNE soon. Clouds to the north are starting to shift that way.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Long rage radar out of nw Fla is picking up reflection now of most of eye...It is still moving nnw. Looking at those steering currents and the outlier on the models (TCLP) growing concern for at least Pensacola.
RollTide18
Member
It's just one of those outliers, if Michael did come up US 43 that would be major surprise to everyone. That said, where the turn to the NE occurs is critical.
That’s just a random track of a model run, and is very much an outlier, I would disregard that pink line
Sam Sparks
Member
Yeah, I knew it was an outlier, I just haven't seen anything even suggest that yet and that bothers me.
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Little explanation about that group of models.... basically based on trajectory and climo, not very reliable and depending on the site you pull the track guidance map it will not be included due to it not being skillful with track. I'd ignore it
Statistical and Statistical-Dynamical Models
These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve statistical equations that describe how a tropical storm or hurricane moves and/or changes intensity in response to climatology and/or present and forecast weather conditions in its proximity. These models are less complex than the "Dynamical Models" and "Limited-Area Dynamical Models" described above; however, many of the intensity (but not track) models are as skillful, if not more skillful, than the more complex models. Models that are not skillful are typically not displayed on the forecast charts provided here.
TCLP 168-hr Trajectory Climatology and Persistence Forecast (Track, Intensity)
That tropical storm probabilities wind map, has a VERY tight gradient near ATL!! I mean 90% probabilities look to be only 25-50 miles from the southern burbs , Atleast!! Any slight shift NW, will have big implications!!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This would be a major issue, given what a poster said earlier about Atlanta and Columbus stations not giving this much thought (probably should be giving it a little more thought than they have been).
Snowflowxxl
Member
Map plz
Wobbling NW at the moment! Where is GaWx?? Would like to hear his thoughts!
ICON out of the 0z gate and track basically unchanged, never gets below 959 mb however.... oops
snowlover91
Member
The TCLP (pink line) is basically a climo model. Here’s a link to more info on it and other models. It’s basically useless in this setup.
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html
Ok, mileage might be off , but you get the point
Stormlover
Member
just one model that is very much an outlier
Mean looks to be around southern Newberry county
:weenie:
Snowflowxxl
Member
RGEM gives ATL about 4 inches of rain. Gets in some of the heavy bands for sure.
It’s probably underestimating the strength of the wedge?!:weenie:Mean looks to be around southern Newberry county
Dang got the last min of it.