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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Long rage radar out of nw Fla is picking up reflection now of most of eye...It is still moving nnw. Looking at those steering currents and the outlier on the models (TCLP) growing concern for at least Pensacola.
 
I don't know how to quote and such guys, so bear with me...but the guidance map shows a pink line going through alabama...I haven't previously seen that. Did I miss it on priors or is that new as a result of the system to the west not coming as quick?

It's just one of those outliers, if Michael did come up US 43 that would be major surprise to everyone. That said, where the turn to the NE occurs is critical.
 
I don't know how to quote and such guys, so bear with me...but the guidance map shows a pink line going through alabama...I haven't previously seen that. Did I miss it on priors or is that new as a result of the system to the west not coming as quick?
That’s just a random track of a model run, and is very much an outlier, I would disregard that pink line
 
I don't know how to quote and such guys, so bear with me...but the guidance map shows a pink line going through alabama...I haven't previously seen that. Did I miss it on priors or is that new as a result of the system to the west not coming as quick?
Little explanation about that group of models.... basically based on trajectory and climo, not very reliable and depending on the site you pull the track guidance map it will not be included due to it not being skillful with track. I'd ignore it

Statistical and Statistical-Dynamical Models
These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve statistical equations that describe how a tropical storm or hurricane moves and/or changes intensity in response to climatology and/or present and forecast weather conditions in its proximity. These models are less complex than the "Dynamical Models" and "Limited-Area Dynamical Models" described above; however, many of the intensity (but not track) models are as skillful, if not more skillful, than the more complex models. Models that are not skillful are typically not displayed on the forecast charts provided here.

TCLP 168-hr Trajectory Climatology and Persistence Forecast (Track, Intensity)
 
That tropical storm probabilities wind map, has a VERY tight gradient near ATL!! I mean 90% probabilities look to be only 25-50 miles from the southern burbs , Atleast!! Any slight shift NW, will have big implications!!
 
That tropical storm probabilities wind map, has a VERY tight gradient near ATL!! I mean 90% probabilities look to be only 25-50 miles from the southern burbs , Atleast!! Any slight shift NW, will have big implications!!

This would be a major issue, given what a poster said earlier about Atlanta and Columbus stations not giving this much thought (probably should be giving it a little more thought than they have been).
 
I don't know how to quote and such guys, so bear with me...but the guidance map shows a pink line going through alabama...I haven't previously seen that. Did I miss it on priors or is that new as a result of the system to the west not coming as quick?
just one model that is very much an outlier
 
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