WeatherAddiction
Member
If the southern part of the eye can strengthen more I would say that there would still be a small chance.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
I wouldn’t take anything off the table, until it’s on land!
Now, y’all hurry up with the early 0z model runs, I gotta get some sleep!
It was said on another forum that as the system gains latitude, the cloud tops will warm. Not sure on the specific reasoning.
It’s the dreaded warm nose! Nobody saw it coming!
Snowflowxxl
Member
Models so far ain’t changed much
Thank you. Can you elaborate on “pulsed”?
snowlover91
Member
The convection has been bursting throughout the day on the east/northeast side like Eric mentioned earlier this morning. The bursts have been getting closer together and more intense and a new one is starting right now. I would anticipate the strengthening to pick back up soon, recon just found 946.5mb pressure extrap. You can see the start of the new burst below and this one looks like it will circle the entire eye.
snowlover91
Member
Scratch that, pressure is 943.7 and last pass was 948.5 extrap. A solid 5mb drop.
Kylo
Member
Just nuts.
021100 2702N 08629W 6920 02766 9437 +202 +102 211008 014 019 002 00
021130 2700N 08627W 6955 02718 9438 +200 +115 223030 035 032 002 00
Wow, a 10mb drop in pressure since the last advisory 3hrs ago. As snowlover91 said, the eastern side of the COC is firing up again. I wonder if NHC will pull the trigger and upgrade to a Cat. 4 or play a little more modestly and go stronger Cat. 3?
RollTide18
Member
I expect them to at least go 125 mph next advisory. Then come out with a special advisory if need be.
To my rookie eye, looks like the cold front is not making a whole lot of Eastward progress, or not steadily anyway! Could lead to more N/NW movement?
GravityWave
Member
Dropsonde (948mb with 16kt winds)
Stormlover
Member
Henry2326
Member
I think they need to do something aggressive to get people to listen!!!!
I'd encourage those of you looking at satellite images to use this one snowlover posted, it is from the 1-minute meso sector, updates almost instantly and gives you a much better idea of what's going on. Free for all to view on TT
So 125 at the 11 pm update?
At 0000 UTC, 10 October 2018, MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 26.6°N and 86.5°W. The current intensity was 110 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 350 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb.
At 0000 UTC, 10 October 2018, MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 26.6°N and 86.5°W. The current intensity was 110 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 350 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb.
weatherguy
Member
My wind damage map based on ECMWF:
http://southernwx.com/community/threads/michael-call-maps.445/#post-113736
http://southernwx.com/community/threads/michael-call-maps.445/#post-113736
The slightest of just west of due north movement
