Brent
Member
it's gonna get much worse I think... reports there are over 200 missing in Mexico Beach. A lot of the Florida deaths reported were well inland not even the coast...
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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
it's gonna get much worse I think... reports there are over 200 missing in Mexico Beach. A lot of the Florida deaths reported were well inland not even the coast...
pcbjr
Member
Mexico Beach/Cape San Blas was about the nicest spot left in FL to just hang out ... but anyone who stayed given that terrain, is/was a Darwin or herd thinning candidate ...
Doing some thinking today and come to the conlusion that the most important part of Michael was timing.
Had the ridge been stronger it would have hit the Yucatan and probably dissipated or it would have maintained a more westward heading in the gulf and would have been sheared and weakened before landfall.
Had the trough been stronger, it would have been quickly pushed east over the FL peninsula or Cuba and then OTS or sheared into a mostly lopsided TS.
Or had the two not being placed perfectly to provide a massive southerly flow to create the massive deep moisture envelope that was in place and allowed dry air to take its toil.
Had the shear been stronger in the gulf it would have stayed weak or had the shear not existed it would have probably exploded before ERCs occured. That would have opened the door to dry air intrusion, and expanding storm size causing upwelling due to the low OHC over the gulf. Thus ending in the typical weakening to rapidly weakening gulf cane we all are used to.
Or the anomalous warm, untouched water in the gulf. Which a single strong cold front could have cooled.
Or the speed being faster and becoming Nate or the speed being slower thus making upwelling an issue.
Everything was in place perfectly to allow a hit on the northern Gulf and not just a hit but a hit from what could be upgraded to a Cat 5. From the speed to the eastward turn allowing the eyewall to close and the increased ventilation, along with perfect timing and very high cape. All had a part to allow it to absolutely thread the needle. There will be decades of intense study on this thing which is probably more anomalous than Sandy.
Had the ridge been stronger it would have hit the Yucatan and probably dissipated or it would have maintained a more westward heading in the gulf and would have been sheared and weakened before landfall.
Had the trough been stronger, it would have been quickly pushed east over the FL peninsula or Cuba and then OTS or sheared into a mostly lopsided TS.
Or had the two not being placed perfectly to provide a massive southerly flow to create the massive deep moisture envelope that was in place and allowed dry air to take its toil.
Had the shear been stronger in the gulf it would have stayed weak or had the shear not existed it would have probably exploded before ERCs occured. That would have opened the door to dry air intrusion, and expanding storm size causing upwelling due to the low OHC over the gulf. Thus ending in the typical weakening to rapidly weakening gulf cane we all are used to.
Or the anomalous warm, untouched water in the gulf. Which a single strong cold front could have cooled.
Or the speed being faster and becoming Nate or the speed being slower thus making upwelling an issue.
Everything was in place perfectly to allow a hit on the northern Gulf and not just a hit but a hit from what could be upgraded to a Cat 5. From the speed to the eastward turn allowing the eyewall to close and the increased ventilation, along with perfect timing and very high cape. All had a part to allow it to absolutely thread the needle. There will be decades of intense study on this thing which is probably more anomalous than Sandy.
Exactly! Time for the ban hammer
This video was linked of AMWX. Im at a loss of words, the first roof comes off the house in what looks like a breeze to what comes later. No telling what the wind speeds were right off the water.
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Henry2326
Member
This article doesn't state numbers but same concern....
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/reu...n-hurricane-michaels-path-of-destruction.html
Henry2326
Member
Its gone...and the sun still rises....Wow!
Playing around and downloaded some Level 2 Data files. Lots of 180+mph bins just under 3000ft and check out this gem right before landfall. No doubt a gust, but that is 226mph, 3000ft off the ocean. Haha, nuts. Wouldn't be surprised if a 190-200mph gust come down somewhere over water.
Edit: Perhaps more impressive, Ive found a 211mph bin just off the coast of PC at 17:38z at 2500ft.
Edit: Perhaps more impressive, Ive found a 211mph bin just off the coast of PC at 17:38z at 2500ft.
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Incredible video... that wind. Who knows what the actual speed was. And, kudos to the builders of that Exxon sign. I would think something like that would be among the first things to fly!
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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Michael was upgraded to Category 5 upon landfall.
Not surprising. Everything matched up just perfectly to finally break the streak.
For more context...
-Latest (as far as date) of a hurricane of this intensity to hit the US.
-4th strongest hurricane to hit the US, trailing only behind the Labor Day 1935 hurricane, Camille (1969), and Andrew (1992).
-3rd hurricane to hit Florida as a Category Five.
-Strongest hurricane to strike the US since Andrew back in August 1992.
SOURCE: Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...-andrew/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.862eef240488
-Latest (as far as date) of a hurricane of this intensity to hit the US.
-4th strongest hurricane to hit the US, trailing only behind the Labor Day 1935 hurricane, Camille (1969), and Andrew (1992).
-3rd hurricane to hit Florida as a Category Five.
-Strongest hurricane to strike the US since Andrew back in August 1992.
SOURCE: Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...-andrew/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.862eef240488