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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Looking at the latest HRRR I don’t see why they wouldn’t expand TSW’s to include the northern part of Upstate SC. They should be included in school cancelations IMO and I don’t even have a dog in the fight
 
1300m said:
True, but on a more positive note, the FV3-GFS continues to impress me and I'm really interested to see how it performs this winter.
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I didn’t think the FV3 did well as it was way too far NW on many runs, including runs right through Atlanta. The worst with track was the CMC, which was way, way too far NW earlier.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looking at the latest HRRR I don’t see why they wouldn’t expand TSW’s to include the northern part of Upstate SC. They should be included in school cancelations IMO and I don’t even have a dog in the fight
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It’s just one model! The gang at NWSGSP won’t budge until Euro shows it!
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s just one model! The gang at NWSGSP won’t budge until Euro shows it!
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Before you bag on someones forecast you should put your own out there. You know models are guidance and not a forecast, your knocking everyone get to be nails on a chalkboard IMO.
And you need to use more of these !! !! !! !! ! !! !! !
 
1300m said:
~90F SSTs provided a lot of fuel along with reduced shear in the final hours. I knew this was a possibility if the dry air could get mixed out, and unlike with Florence, it happened.
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I’m not trying to pick on you and I fully agree with you about the unusually warm SSTs being a major factor, but for the record it wasn’t ~90 F. It was 29-30C or 84-86F all the way to the landfall, which was near record SSTs for early October (thanks to the unseasonable heat) and more like August normals. I know because I’ve been watching the SST maps and buoys for many days. I kept reading some folks saying the lower OHC there wouldn’t allow him to get very strong, but I countered by saying the unusually warm SSTs were all that was needed due to steady movement.
 
GaWx said:
I’m not trying to pick on you and you I fully agree with you about the unusually warm SSTs being a major factor, but for the record it wasn’t ~90 F. It was 20-30C or 84-86F all the way to the landfall, which was near record SSTs for early October (thanks to the unseasonable heat) and more like August normals. I know because I’ve been watching the SST maps and buoys for many days. I kept reading some folks saying the lower OHC there wouldn’t allow him to get very strong, but I countered by saying the unusually warm SSTs were all that was needed due to steady movement.
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Welcome back ... ;)
 
The guys at Gsp usually do a great job with winter weather at least. I’m sure this is a unique situation they haven’t had to deal with. So who knows how Gsp national weather Service will do.
 
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