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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

snowlover91 said:
Just about every model struggled with Florence intensity after the botched EWRC that never really got going again. There will probably be some interesting studies into what happened and hopefully that data used in future model implementations to improve their performance but models still did a good job with the track despite the intensity struggles.
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I think Florence was a little bit of everything that messed up that forecast. It never quite got the dry air out, shear was stronger than modeled and due to two ERCs the wind field was too broad and never tightened back up.
 
Nice band looking to be setting up, pivoting into NGa /W Sc area in the next little while!! Some random, discreet cells nearby too! Was sunny the last 3-4 hours!
 
58183AFA-63BF-4052-9C9A-34D7BD9D1238.png Close, but no cigar! TS warnings!
 
snowlover91 said:
Just about every model struggled with Florence intensity after the botched EWRC that never really got going again. There will probably be some interesting studies into what happened and hopefully that data used in future model implementations to improve their performance but models still did a good job with the track despite the intensity struggles.
Click to expand...
Lol man I’m just a weather junkie but I’m trying. Michael exploded on IR late last night. I’d like to know what variable made this possible. The eye consolidated quickly. Seems RI depends a lot on eye diameter. It seems easier to keep convection wrapped around a pinhole for obvious reason
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Lol man I’m just a weather junkie but I’m trying. Michael exploded on IR late last night. I’d like to know what variable made this possible. The eye consolidated quickly. Seems RI depends a lot on eye diameter. It seems easier to keep convection wrapped around a pinhole for obvious reason
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Here were the factors I saw for RI and why I predicted a cat 4 with a shot of a cat 5 a few days ago.
1. It’s been my experience that systems that consistently maintain -80C or colder storms throughout their lifecycle will RI if/when they form a solid inner core and reach favorable conditions.
2. Storms that organize despite negative factors like shear and dry air often will explode once they reach better conditions.
3. When all globals show significant pressure drops it’s usually a sign of RI and when true RI occurs most storms end up stronger than globals intensity models show.
4. The Gulf waters at 29-30C with decent OHC were primed.
5. The shear that Michael struggled with even as a hurricane became less of a factor when it moved N to NE as did dry air when it got into the middle of the GOM.

Hope those help some, that’s all things I noticed from the many years I’ve been following it closely. Still learn stuff every year like with Florence when things just don’t go as forecast lol.
 
1300m said:
~90F SSTs provided a lot of fuel along with reduced shear in the final hours. I knew this was a possibility if the dry air could get mixed out, and unlike with Florence, it happened.
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I think someone said yesterday that the shallowness of the gulf wouldn’t allow it to reach Cat 4 or 5!?? Oops
 
Anderson County schools closed tomorrow in sc. I’m in Pickens county one county up. Very curious to see what happens here
 
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