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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Euro goes right over the eastern part of Hispaniola
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^Indeed, the 12Z Euro as of hour 144 is looking a little less threatening for the SE US than the 0Z Euro hour 156 with a slightly stronger and further south Jose, a slightly further north Maria, and a slightly weaker ridge to Jose's NE. Let's see how this ends up.
 
If this track is off just a little it will go right over the heart of Hispaniola and spend a little more time over land
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GaWx said:
For the SE US, the 12Z GEFS members illustrate well that a further SW than expected track in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles would mean an increased danger.
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We always have to worry about interaction with the Antilles (such as Hispaniola) causing seemingly unforeseen cyclonic curvature & brief acceleration in track (leading to westerly track adjustments near-just north of Hispaniola... :/
 
Looks like Maria will likely be a Hurricane soon, if not already. Cloud tops starting to blossom close to the COC. Here we go.
 
Storm5 said:
Still heading N but has no path
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The path in weak steering is often a slow north drift. As a coastal SE US resident who is exhausted from the last two years, the 12Z top two models for the tropics are at least somewhat encouraging to me. But it is still quite early, unfortunately.
 
Storm5 said:
Still heading N but has no path
a7ada6bc71d62f4d81e5f51b40f6eede.jpg


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Click to expand...

Yeah verbatim that's a little worrisome given all the low heights to its west and northwest & building ridge to the northeast. Recon also looks to have found Jose a little weaker than advertised at the 11am advisory, certainly wouldn't be good news if that turned into a legitimate trend and NWP caught on
 
GaWx said:
Why annoying? Jose may save the SE from a major problem if he hangs around.
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I mean in the terms of a lingering looping storm that you hear of forever. It is never a threat so you don't really watch it yet you track it because it can't make it's mind up.
 
We are going to remember Irma, Jose, and Maria as being the "tricky hurricane forecast year of 2017". So many variables! Irma takes a SW jog, basically goes against all climo in regards to previous tracks.. and now we have Jose who was likely held out/weakened by Irma who is affecting Maria!

Whew.
 
The very slow northward movement of a H just offshore the NE US that the 12Z Euro shows has been pretty rare. The last one I could find that was fairly similar was Esther of 1961:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1961/ESTHER/track.gif

Before that, you may have to go all of the way back to 1899:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1899/3/track.gif

Before that, I found 2 in 1889:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1889/3/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1889/4/track.gif
 
GaWx said:
The very slow northward movement of a H just offshore the NE US has been pretty rare. The last one I could find that was fairly similar was Esther of 1961:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1961/ESTHER/track.gif

Before that, you may have to go all of the way back to 1899:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1899/3/track.gif

Before that, I found 2 in 1889:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1889/3/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1889/4/track.gif
Click to expand...

I think Edouard (1996) would count...
at199605.gif
 
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