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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Assuming I'm looking at current maps, which I'm pretty sure I am, the EPS mean would suggest a glancing blow to the outer banks.
 
Storm5 said:
Eps?

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Like the 0Z EPS, the 12Z EPS has several members that hit as far SW as FL (I counted 5) between next Sun and Tue and with 3 of those then going into the Gulf. I counted 2 of the 0Z EPS going into the Gulf. Also, like was the case with the 0Z EPS, there are some that hit the Carolinas and many that stay offshore the SE US.

The mean of the 12Z EPS is fairly similar to the 0Z EPS on her approach to the SE US although a bit east of the 0Z in later timeframes.
 
The big thing is the EPS still quickly weakens Jose to nothing after 120hrs.

EDIT: the Look at hr 168 would definitely suggest a FL-NC threat, after which the spread just completely breaks down the ridge allowing northeast movement.
 
GaWx said:
Like the 0Z EPS, the 12Z EPS has several members that hit as far SW as FL (I counted 5) between next Sun and Tue and with 3 of those then going into the Gulf. I counted 2 of the 0Z EPS going into the Gulf. Also, like was the case with the 0Z EPS, there are some that hit the Carolinas and many that stay offshore the SE US.

The mean of the 12Z EPS is fairly similar to the 0Z EPS on her approach to the SE US although a bit east of the 0Z in later timeframes.
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Larry,
Please .... :confused:
 
I know this isn't related to Maria but this goes to show just how unpredictable forecasting intensity can be for small tropical cyclones like Otis & Maria... After it spent about a week trying to become a tropical storm, Otis has decided unexpectedly to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane today in spite of most guidance expecting him to remain a tropical depression or low grade tropical storm. Yeah, there's still a lot we don't know about tropical cyclones...

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Webberweather53 said:
I know this isn't related to Maria but this goes to show just how unpredictable forecasting intensity can be for small tropical cyclones like Otis & Maria... After it spent about a week trying to become a tropical storm, Otis has decided unexpectedly to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane today in spite of most guidance expecting him to remain a tropical depression or low grade tropical storm. Yeah, there's still a lot we don't know about tropical cyclones...

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Hey Webb! Absolutely. And 1 thing's for sure - they hurt when they touch ...
Thanks!
 
Webberweather53 said:
I know this isn't related to Maria but this goes to show just how unpredictable forecasting intensity can be for small tropical cyclones like Otis & Maria... After it spent about a week trying to become a tropical storm, Otis has decided unexpectedly to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane today in spite of most guidance expecting him to remain a tropical depression or low grade tropical storm. Yeah, there's still a lot we don't know about tropical cyclones...

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I saw that. Quite strange, but Otis is a very small storm it seems, so it must have been able to strengthen fast.
 
GaWx said:
Well, only 10% hit FL (5 of ~50). They are still relative SW outliers....at least for that run. But, yes, FL is far from out of danger.
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Larry,
Sharing music would be far more fun ... :confused:
But I fear I'm treading on banter ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Sharing music would be far more fun ... :confused:
But I fear I'm treading on banter ... :eek:
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Phil, I'm going to just play a friendly and hopefully objective messenger here and not try to drive you to drinking today. Looking back at the last several EPS runs, despite Jose's track getting more attention as a potential big influence on Maria's track (for good reason), the # of member hits on FL has remained fairly steady with its nontrivial minority. In other words, though the threat hasn't really been high there yet on any recent EPS run, it hasn't really dropped much at all, if any. Also, the last 3 EPS runs going backwards have had this # of members getting into the Gulf: 3 (current one), 2, 2. So, the western outliers are persisting fwiw.
 
GaWx said:
Phil, I'm going to just play a friendly and hopefully objective messenger here and not try to drive you to drinking today. Looking back at the last several EPS runs, despite Jose's track getting more attention as a potential big influence on Maria's track (for good reason), the # of member hits on FL has remained fairly steady with its nontrivial minority. In other words, though the threat hasn't really been high there yet on any recent EPS run, it hasn't really dropped much at all, if any. Also, the last 3 EPS runs going backwards have had this # of members getting into the Gulf: 3 (current one), 2, 2. So, the western outliers are persisting fwiw.
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Larry,
A) You won't drive me to drinking today! ... :cool: Believe me ... :p
B) Your insights are so much appreciated. ;)
C) We have a long way to go and I get a bit annoyed (for lack of a better word) when some folks (not you) look at a run and decide all Hades is breaking loose someplace 8 days out.
D) I have insights but those do not hinge on a model run, so I'm not posting those - just hoping to assist in keeping a conversation going without it becoming a forecast war.
E) Thanks!
Best!
Phil

PS - Enjoy your afternoon amble ... :D
... and still anxiously awaiting radiational cooling ...
 
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NHC currently forecasting Jose to dissipate by day 5 as he turns southeastward off New England, the question thereafter will remain just how far southeast he gets (closer to the Gulf stream, may remain formidable, if stays closer to the eastern seaboard in the cooler shelf waters that are ~20C, he could disintegrate quickly). Could have big track implications for Maria
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I don't like that grouping showing up near Florida. Looks a lot like how Irma started trending at this range.
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It's just way too close at this range, interaction w/ Hispaniola could shift the track a few hundred miles on its own (much less what Jose and the longwave pattern decide to do) and unfortunately coarse global models like the EPS can't resolve track alterations due to mountainous terrain (even if a TC doesnt directly pass over them)
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
Irma was supposed to go OTS as well

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But by about this time (7-10 days before hitting), there were many model runs hitting from the Carolinas northward to the NE US.
 
Maria page updated to reflect the Hurricane classification. Also, how does everyone like the new font for the forum threads? I changed it a couple hours ago, and hopefully its easier to read?
 
Jose may become a favorite name for babies born to coastal southeasterners if it plays out like this. ;)
 
Maria taking a hard left this run.... please loop lol that would be classic

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Shawn said:
Maria page updated to reflect the Hurricane classification. Also, how does everyone like the new font for the forum threads? I changed it a couple hours ago, and hopefully its easier to read?
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Not sure yet, I can tell it changed, but I am not too certain I like it or not. Maybe have a forum text setting? Capital letters and numbers seem a bit wide to me.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not sure yet, I can tell it changed, but I am not too certain I like it or not. Maybe have a forum text setting? Capital letters and numbers seem a bit wide to me.
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I changed it to another, should be better. I'm not sure if we can get a selector for fonts on the page as it's more of a universal thing. :(
 
Maria needs to start gaining some latitude or shredder island will come into play

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Canadian ensembles have many members going right over Hispaniola ...... shredder city
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18z GEFS wants to capture Maria with a weak ULL over the GOM. Would mean a FL-NC landfall. However it also wants to weaken the Ridge and allow a pull OTS. Would definitely be a tug of war type setup. Good luck to the models trying to figure that one out over a week away. Jose is pretty much gone.
 
Only one member of the GEFS is able to pull Maria into the GA/SC region. A couple more into NC. The majority leave us alone (from a landfall). Looks like they are all going to have a weaker ULL solution and a weakening ridge. GFS has been known in the past to break this ridging down too quickly and I would trust the Euro's handle (albeit sometimes overdone) over the GFS.
 
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