Henry2326
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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
12z ICON....geez
It’s possible with more land interference and a strong SW ridge the system may pull more north.
Oh I’m back out of hibernation....
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Oh I’m back out of hibernation....
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Henry2326
Member
This is just spooky.....same time frame as Katrina.....2 days difference....
Henry2326
Member
Looks to me that the different results in Icon and Gem is the Icon is riding just a tic north at 60w.....
Henry2326
Member
12z UK for 8/24...
Brent
Member
An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progres of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progres of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Henry2326
Member
Thoughts on why Euro isn't developing it?
Henry2326
Member
12z HWRF liking it.....
Well, the model is smarter than us and is the King. So, I'm hoping like Hades it is on the right track. Keep in mind that the GFS is also weak. The HWRF being strong is no surprise as it has that kind of bias.
The Euro isn't weak due to shear, dry air (dewpoints are 76+), or cool SSTs though there's land interaction later.
What I'd give for this to end up a bunch of nothing!
Brent
Member
I'm baffled as to why the globals are so meh
Like I get being hopeful but for me it doesn't make much sense realistically
Like I get being hopeful but for me it doesn't make much sense realistically
Henry2326
Member
I'm with ya.....reading other commentary, many are going hmmmmm.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Saharan dust? Shear?
Brent
Member
The globals have been poor with other storms this year too so shrugs I mean look at Gonzalo and Hanna especially
Agree. But like I said yesterday, so far everything has been kind of a mess this year. You'd think we'd see a more robust system. I think we will, especially, if we're not seeing dry air, shear, or cool water. Wonder how instability looks down that way?
Not shear as it is very light. Can there be SAL with high dewpoints? If so, perhaps SAL??
So far, the 12Z EPS is very quiet thus in agreement with the op thru hour 108+.
Henry2326
Member
Strings out the vorticity and fast movement. Likely competing circulations within the trough.
Perhaps this competition will keep it weak and may be why the Euro and GFS are weak?
12Z EPS, like the 0Z EPS, is vey quiet through 132 with only 1 of 51 at TS+ strength!
Later as it gets to near the E GOM, it develops some members like the 0Z did. Also, there are a few weak members off the SE coast with one nearing H strength as it passes just offshore the NC OB.
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Henry2326
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Shaggy
Member
BHS1975
Member
Looks to be getting its act together in the latest vis loop.
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Brent
Member
GFS after showing nothing earlier develops it along the east coast of Florida and it strengthens into a hurricane probably heading north not unlike Isaias
Stays just off the Florida coast from hr 162 to around hr 216. Quite the precip map so far.
Brent
Member
Very similar to Isaias near the Carolinas
Henry2326
Member
Bad for the Carolinas as it stays weak off FL coast....will be interesting to see if Euro moves to East coast tonight.
Henry2326
Member
18z stays with its last run at that point.....
Henry2326
Member
12z Navgem....interesting
Shaggy
Member
Not that the navgem needs to be taken seriously as it's not best but the difference IMO between it, the icon, and ukie is a stronger storm earlier and further east COULD cut down on impacts to Florida and offer an earlier and cleaner miss off the east coast versus a scraper like the gfs had.
lexxnchloe
Member
I thought i was in the clear. Hopefully not another isie.
Henry2326
Member
I agree.....I watch it only for consistency to see if it aligns with others. Euro tonight will be interesting....if it moves east.
Very to say the least. I'd imagine that system in AL would have some influence on the other system's path.
Brent
Member
Not that I think the GFS is correct or anything but no one is in the clear when were talking about 7-10 days out
Also this could easily be a recurve or in the Gulf at this point
lexxnchloe
Member
Hopefully somewhere besides wilmington, lol
Henry2326
Member
Some consistency for placement with all but Euro now.