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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

12z WRF-NMM keeps it over the ocean all the way to the panhandle.
 
We'll see how long this lasts. Steering has temporarily broken down. The storm is left to its own accord determining motion. Will the steering remain neutral for the next 6 hours? Will the storm drift SW back into Cuba due to land friction? Will the digging SW finally latch on and the storm move straight North? Has the weakening changed the level of the steering flow to more neutral? If it gets through this ERC thingy and begins to deepen what level of the steering will have the most influence? Back W, WNW, NNW hell SSW? The plot thickens lmfao. Then again it could just last an hour and we're back to the races :cool:
 
This is an interesting map. It is the maritime traffic flow, reflecting live updates for commercial vessels.
If you want to see how shipping companies are reacting to (and in reality projecting) the storm, this is an interesting view, since it shows how mariners and their companies are seeing it. Lives, ships, and money are what they are dealing with.
You can zoom in and out and move across the world. You can see the directions ships are headed, as well as what the ships are, by type and by name. Plus more!
It’s certainly a few minutes of fun! At least for me. :)

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-78.3/centery:25.4/zoom:6
 
Jackstraw said:
All I can say is this is why, this freakin why I'm obsessed lol
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This and the Inauguration Day Windstorm of 1993 in Seattle have fascinated me more than any other storms I have monitored.. I love that this time around I get to share my geekdom with all you awesome folks as well!!!
 
Jackstraw said:
We'll see how long this lasts. Steering has temporarily broken down. The storm is left to its own accord determining motion. Will the steering remain neutral for the next 6 hours? Will the storm drift SW back into Cuba due to land friction? Will the digging SW finally latch on and the storm move straight North? Has the weakening changed the level of the steering flow to more neutral? If it gets through this ERC thingy and begins to deepen what level of the steering will have the most influence? Back W, WNW, NNW hell SSW? The plot thickens lmfao. Then again it could just last an hour and we're back to the races :cool:
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Well the problem is the weakness is just that, a weakness, it is not a strong trough or ULL. I guess the strong hot outflow is enough to pump the ridge enough to slow it down.
 
I think she might have hit the breaks. Y’all know what that means?
 
Irma still moving W/WNW on radar. Slow but shes moving
 
Not sure if it's been posted but has anyone seen the footage from Long Island in the Bahamas of the water being pulled away from the shoreline?
 
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Irma right now
 
DustinWX said:
Then what's stopping it from going to ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Think it's reached the edge of the ridge. The SW is just now rounding the bottom of the main trof. The SW is forecast to erode the steering ridge just enough and provide a weakness for the storm to go poleward. As I and others have been saying none of these features are strong enough to dominate the playing field so other more subtle influences play a bigger part, i.e. the ULL to it's SW in the carib is altering the steering flow around the storm, the ridge to the west is altering the steering flow for the SW, the ridge in the Atlantic is stubbornly strong with it's westward extension. Not to mention the upper level high on top of the storm thats been very strong is altering the upper levels directly around the storm. With none of these being dominate it's kind of a stand off. Not your normal trof swoops down and picks up a storm scenario, never has been. just my opinion.
 
I said this earlier but do not be surprised to see Irma not weaken as much if at all when the shear increases. The shear will be mostly south to southwesterly, Irma will speed up moving north. The speed increase will nullify a good bit of the shear. We see this happen all of the time in the north Atlantic.
 
Jackstraw said:
Think it's reached the edge of the ridge. The SW is just now rounding the bottom of the main trof. The SW is forecast to erode the steering ridge just enough and provide a weakness for the storm to go poleward. As I and others have been saying none of these features are strong enough to dominate the playing field so other more subtle influences play a bigger part, i.e. the ULL to it's SW in the carib is altering the steering flow around the storm, the ridge to the west is altering the steering flow for the SW, the ridge in the Atlantic is stubbornly strong with it's westward extension. Not to mention the upper level high on top of the storm thats been very strong is altering the upper levels directly around the storm. With none of these being dominate it's kind of a stand off. Not your normal trof swoops down and picks up a storm scenario, never has been. just my opinion.
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2 minor things -
1) No real change from 2:00 PM officially; and
2) It is about time for now-casting.
Having said as much, my gut tells me more east by about 20 - 40 miles since that looks like the path of least resistance, at this point in time, anyway (sure to change in 3 hours) ...
 
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