Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Xtreme Weather]

final evolution does not seem far off from 12z gfs with track, winds, placement in GA.

Could be no bend back to the NW at all straight N all the way

 

[whatalife]

final evolution does not seem far off from 12z gfs with track, winds, placement in GA.

And that is not good for our backyard.

 

[Storm5]

Inland through Georgia is a little east of previous runs but other than that hopefully we start to lock a track down

 

[Storm5]

Could be no bend back to the NW at all straight N all the way

It bends that run just a little later. Will be interesting to see when the bend actually starts

 

[$alt]

Timing of this ULL feature will basically decide what happens from what I'm looking at. Which can still change, but I do believe Euro + EPS have a good handle on it.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Pretty big jump NE inland for GFS. Makes sense climo wise. Difficult to cut hard left once inland

 

[$alt]

CMC is not horribly off from the GFS in regards to track.

 

[Storm5]

One bit of good news is flooding isn't going to be a huge issue up through Georgia into Tennessee

 

[La Plata]

So landfall is Everglades City more or less. What's odd is max wind gusts of 150mph but minimum pressure of 895mb? Either overdoing the pressure or the winds are underdone. 850s of 181mph makes more sense...

 

[$alt]

Pressure is likely overdone on the GFS runs, but still not a storm to mess around with by any means.

 

[deltadog03]

GFS has some 50-70kt wind gusts rolling through here. 40-55 or 60mph *from what I could tell* for NGA

 

[$alt]

Hm, looked at TWC radar and Irma looks to be trying to wobble NW off the Cuban coast..... can't get the GOES 16 site to load.

 

[Tarheel1]

One bit of good news is flooding isn't going to be a huge issue up through Georgia into Tennessee

Wind damage may be pretty severe, if models are correct! In NGa and W Sc! I would assume the stronger the storm at landfall, the worse these modeled winds could be up here? If it landfalls at 175mph instead of 155, could that lead to 80+ mph winds, instead of the 40-60 mph gusts shown?

 

[deltadog03]

looks like eye is jogging along or just offshore right now. the dive SW did stop quickly

 

[$alt]

Shes starting to tug NW I think. This at 200 frames is illustrating it on my end pretty well - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

 

[deltadog03]

Honestly the Cuba coast might have helped kick start Irma!

 

[SoutheastRidge]

One bit of good news is flooding isn't going to be a huge issue up through Georgia into Tennessee

I thought it was forecast to stall in TN ?

 

[Storm5]

I thought it was forecast to stall in TN ?

Flooding does not look to be a big issue for Tennessee even if it does stall . Amounts are in the 1-3 inch rain

 

[MBell]

They hug the GFS verbatim for 10m winds. It think they forgot the gusts exist too. Ryan Maue is about the only one in Atlanta who (though not on the news) expects bad winds.

Channel 2 showed sustained tropical storm force winds and gusts 55-65 at 11pm. I don't normally watch them as they overhype but that sounds feasible. I prefer 11 Alive Storm Trackers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[deltadog03]

Looks like Cuban coast has tightened up the eye and the clouds have super cooled. If this stays along the coast or just inland it’s got a shot at getting under 900mb