Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[skywatcher]

Run the loop outflow on NW side doesn't look as good as rest of Irma, not effecting strength obviously at all but wonder if it's feeling the trough or maybe just maybe a little shear up ahead.... hoping for anything to weaken it any
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-rbtop-long.html

Looking like a nosedive into Cuba at the moment.

 

[WeatherLC]

Looking like a nosedive into Cuba at the moment.

I agree. Looks like a SW jog to me


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[Jackstraw]

I think it will be back to Cat 5 next update. It just passed through some drier air at the mid levels today and that has decreased the winds away from the core somewhat, not significantly but somewhat. Still hashing it out and still consolidating after the ERC. As Undercover Brother would say, the core is still "Solid"!

 

[Ryan Sanders]

If the west trend continues, and this thing rides just along or off the coast of Florida... I'd think it holds itself together longer and brings higher winds farther inland in places like Alabama and Georgia?

 

[skywatcher]

If the west trend continues, and this thing rides just along or off the coast of Florida... I'd think it holds itself together longer and brings higher winds farther inland in places like Alabama and Georgia?

Yup.

 

[Arcc]

If the west trend continues, and this thing rides just along or off the coast of Florida... I'd think it holds itself together longer and brings higher winds farther inland in places like Alabama and Georgia?

Yep, the way things are looking it's certainly possible. Although to be perfectly honest I'm not really sure it doesn't make it much farther west. Obviously the Ridge is stronger than was forecasted (aided by the hot outflow of Irma no doubt) and the weakness/ULL is weaker (the models have overestimated a trough again, who'd thought it).

It's almost like a farther south Katrina.

 

[$alt]

Added the recent multi-model tracks to the Irma page. Anything else need to be added?
http://southernwx.com/irma

 

[deltadog03]

I am going to be doing another FB live video in about 10 mins.

 

[skywatcher]

Added the recent multi-model tracks to the Irma page. Anything else need to be added?
http://southernwx.com/irma

You are way too good to us Shawn! Thank you!

 

[WeatherLC]

Added the recent multi-model tracks to the Irma page. Anything else need to be added?
http://southernwx.com/irma

Those cool gfs and euro wind gust maps and power outage maps?


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[WeatherWatch]

Can someone post the 8pm update? NHC site is not opening up at all.

 

[Tarheel1]

Gov. Ivey has issued a state of emergency in Alabama ahead of the storm.

He must be consulting James Spann

 

[Stormlover]

Added the recent multi-model tracks to the Irma page. Anything else need to be added?
http://southernwx.com/irma

Do you have one that shows the storm surge map? Got a cousin in Tampa 20 feet from a river.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Can someone post the 8pm update? NHC site is not opening up at all.

Irma :

8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 8
Location: 22.2°N 77.2°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 924 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

Jose
8:00 PM AST Fri Sep 8
Location: 16.7°N 58.8°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Katia
7:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 8
Location: 20.9°N 96.8°W
Moving: WSW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

 

[skywatcher]

He must be consulting James Spann

"Like", except he is a she.

 

[pcbjr]

One more like this and the Big Bend will be in play ...

 

[Storm5]

He must be consulting James Spann

She

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[pcbjr]

"Like", except he is a she.

+ + + + + + + + +

 

[skywatcher]

One more like this and the Big Bend will be in play ...

I always called it the armpit. Nothing personal, just looks like an armpit to me. But that further track right into north AL does concern me a bit.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I always called it the armpit. Nothing personal, just looks like an armpit to me. But that further track right into north AL does concern me a bit.

I hope the shifts stop. If Irma gets some water interaction, she won't weaken as fast and therefore the winds will be horrible up here, and if she stays in the Gulf, AL and GA will get some pretty bad winds I feel.