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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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ForsythSnow said:
I agree. Irma is giving off this flasr sense of hope by weakening so fast over the last 12 to 24 hours, but in reality, the hurricane models had this happen, and Irma will gain or at least maintain intensity until landfall. It also still means a cat 4 minimum at landfall, or basically hurricane Andrew intensity hitting Miami and/or South Florida.
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I think that the weakening its gone through the last 24 hrs, from 185 to 150 is going to make a lot of people decide to stay.
 
Sure looks like Irma is approaching the western edge of the WAR.... also when you look at wv loop there is a lot going on at H5 to still work out, that ec trough and those 2 very noticeable sw's diving across Nebraska and the Dakota's. Still a long way to go with this one I'm afraid

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html

wg8dlm6.GIF
 
ForsythSnow said:
I agree. Irma is giving off this flasr sense of hope by weakening so fast over the last 12 to 24 hours, but in reality, the hurricane models had this happen, and Irma will gain or at least maintain intensity until landfall. It also still means a cat 4 minimum at landfall, or basically hurricane Andrew intensity hitting Miami and/or South Florida.
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We saw this with Harvey, odds are this thing will be strengthening at landfall with the new eyewall.
 
I could see this going into the eastern GOM and riding up the west side of Florida with the model trends. We will see here soon if it stays on the current NHC track or goes farther west of the anticipated bend to the north. Nothing is off the table at this point, just my opinion.
 
metwannabe said:
Sure looks like Irma is approaching the western edge of the WAR.... also when you look at wv loop there is a lot going on at H5 to still work out, that ec trough and those 2 very noticeable sw's diving across Nebraska and the Dakota's. Still a long way to go with this one I'm afraid

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html

wg8dlm6.GIF
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It was interesting seeing the ensembles tick west again but I still believe we see an east trend . Nothing major like the NAM showed last night . But every little shift has big impacts for Georgia and SC and parts of NC

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Storm5 said:
It was interesting seeing the ensembles tick west again but I still believe we see an east trend . Nothing major like the NAM showed last night . But every little shift has big impacts for Georgia and SC and parts of NC

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Yeah I'm not sure of anything anymore Lol.... when you look at the wind map and see that massive trough and WAR getting beat back you wonder why it's still heading west. I saw one of your post the other night that asked a very good question, why isn't it gonna feel that weakness? (not that I want it, I rather the trough had picked it up and shot out to sea) I guess the trough is lifting and it's missing it but the weakness is still there so I'm about 90% in on the Euro but we know how these go sometimes

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre.../winkel3=270.81,35.76,1383/loc=-82.813,27.896
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I'm not sure of anything anymore Lol.... when you look at the wind map and see that massive trough and WAR getting beat back you wonder why it's still heading west. I saw one of your post the other night that asked a very good question, why isn't it gonna feel that weakness? (not that I want it, I rather the trough had picked it up and shot out to sea) I guess the trough is lifting and it's missing it but the weakness is still there so I'm about 90% in on the Euro but we know how these go sometimes

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre.../winkel3=270.81,35.76,1383/loc=-82.813,27.896
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That is a great map. Thanks
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I'm not sure of anything anymore Lol.... when you look at the wind map and see that massive trough and WAR getting beat back you wonder why it's still heading west. I saw one of your post the other night that asked a very good question, why isn't it gonna feel that weakness? (not that I want it, I rather the trough had picked it up and shot out to sea) I guess the trough is lifting and it's missing it but the weakness is still there so I'm about 90% in on the Euro but we know how these go sometimes

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre.../winkel3=270.81,35.76,1383/loc=-82.813,27.896
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Still never got a response lol. Thats a huge weakness, and I still don't get with such a powerful storm why we don't end up with a more northerly track sooner. Then Larry said most storms in the past located at a similar location as Irma almost never turn to the north .

Complicated , yet fun to watch
 
Storm5 said:
It was interesting seeing the ensembles tick west again but I still believe we see an east trend . Nothing major like the NAM showed last night . But every little shift has big impacts for Georgia and SC and parts of NC

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What makes you think this?
 
Probably because the trough is due north of Irma and would have to be more to the west of it to change the flow that it's embedded in.


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Flo said:
What makes you think this?
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As met pointed out if Irma does not take on a more west track over the next few hours it's going to stay a little North of the NHC track. Add to the fact the models have trended ever so slightly stronger with the trough I just think we see a small east correction, nothing major . Ive been wrong before plenty of times.
 
Storm5 said:
Looks like the NHC has Irma as a 45 mph tropical storm around Macon Georgia . That would be really good news for out Georgia friends. The weaker the better

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That would be good, but maybe I’m stubborn. LOL, I am. LOL I think it’ll be pretty close to a minimal hurricanes at that point. yes, it’s going to weekend. But pressures are very low, even well inland. And the models have pretty high sustained winds at certainly higher gusts
 
I think one of the reasons why we might not see this Tran east by the Nam had is because the weakness is a good bit of ways away from Irma right now off to the northeast if it was a little bit deeper it absolutely would pick this up and bring it out
 
The current ERC still isn't complete . We won't see Irma strengthen until it's complete

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