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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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pcbjr said:
If this local AccuWeather forecast even comes close to verifying, you and I will probably be speaking again in October (once power and internet are restored in Gainesville) -

Screen_Shot_2017-09-07_at_6.39.02_PM.png
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look at the bright side, at least summer is over and you dont have to worry about the house getting too hot.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Spann is live on FB right now and honestly I think he is focusing too much on where the center is forecast to go without mentioning the possibility that it could shift further east or west.
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Why?....Doesn't he know there will be ZERO impact to Alabama? What could he possibly talking about? #sarcasm
 
I don't know what's going on internally, but presentation wise, this is the best I've seen Irma look all day today. Especially on the western side of the hurricane.
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If you look over TX and just west of Jamaica in this loop. Don't discount the role that TX ridge and the ULL are having or will have. That ridge over performs it could start to pinch the trof between itself and the Bermuda, WAR, the big ol ridge out to sea, and alter the SW to not dig as deep and/or lift out sooner That ULL is is actually working in tandem with the slowly building BOR (Big Ol' Ridge) to counter the urge Irma has to go poleward. I think the development of those 2 feature over the next 24-36 hours is going to have a substantial impact on where Irma will be and where it will be heading come Sat. evening.
Just my armchair opinion:weenie:

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goes16abiconus&regex=simpleWaterVapor&title=GOES-16 ABI - Simple Water Vapor&time_drop=show
 
weatherfide said:
I was looking around on NOAA's site and found a map of all of the hurricane tracks over the past 150 years. I only see 3 that are similar to the UK/Euro/18 z GFS tracks. All were unnamed storms and occurred prior to 1940. As long as it stays out of the gulf and we are on the east side, we should be spared most of the carnage, I think.
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I survived the Bliz and those winds were gusting at what these might be, so it's the nasty little tornadoes that spin up by the dozens I don't like :) Give me a blizzard any day, Kyle :) Hope this track continues to change into Sat. Tony
 
metwannabe said:
I think you are more likely to get those then me, not that I'm complaining... still curious to see when these turns actually occur. Most big canes feel the weakness to turn poleward fairly quickly but are slower to respond to the tug of an ULL so I'm not convinced of any track until it actually turning. That hard NW slingshot effect I'm just not sold on yet.....
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I buy the NW slingshot. I'm still up in the air about when the turn occurs and how much if any easterly movement it has once that turn happens

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Not sure if this question has already been posed but if Miami was to take a direct hit (hopefully not) how would NHC proceed with operations? I assume they are in a very well constructed building but with such a storm you would think they would lose some kind of support/functionality.
 
Jackstraw said:
If you look over TX and just west of Jamaica in this loop. Don't discount the role that TX ridge and the ULL are having or will have. That ridge over performs it could start to pinch the trof between itself and the Bermuda, WAR, the big ol ridge out to sea, and alter the SW to not dig as deep and/or lift out sooner That ULL is is actually working in tandem with the slowly building BOR (Big Ol' Ridge) to counter the urge Irma has to go poleward. I think the development of those 2 feature over the next 24-36 hours is going to have a substantial impact on where Irma will be and where it will be heading come Sat. evening.
Just my armchair opinion:weenie:

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=goes16abiconus&regex=simpleWaterVapor&title=GOES-16 ABI - Simple Water Vapor&time_drop=show
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So do you think it could move further east in FL or a Western FL track?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Not sure if this question has already been posed but if Miami was to take a direct hit (hopefully not) how would NHC proceed with operations? I assume they are in a very well constructed building but with such a storm you would think they would lose some kind of support/functionality.
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Weather Prediction Center takes over and issues warnings while NHC are offline.
 
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