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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Jackstraw said:
Here they come, walkin down the street... hey, hey their the SW's....
Tilt your head to the right and tell me that doesn't look like a gremlin over the N central plains getting ready to throw a wrench into all of this
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Hey man!

See that but what way does the wrench turn?
 
pcbjr said:
Hey man!

See that but what way does the wrench turn?
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Million dollar question. That's why they call them Gremlins:eek:
It really is pretty much a race now. Every big storm I've ever seen get into this general area it always comes down to this. Ridge building to its NE, weakening trof, shortwaves racing down it. Those are all of the big players. the little guys that models dont resolve well can have a bigger influence than normal. That small ridge building over Katia? That could easily force the SW's shallower and a little more east if it overperforms as the entire weakness gets pinched from both sides. We're getting real close to the devils in the details time, not just overall patterns.

Edited for crappy keyboard ;)
 
GaWx said:
Based on Matthew, outages could easily be far higher than the 20-40% predicted for the GA coast. I'd think 90%+, unfortunately.
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That map is horrendously wrong over GA, NC and SC. If the 12z GFS verified, I can see 60-70%, maybe more, over upstate SC into the mountains of NC.
 
I remember Hurricane Opal! I was a senior in high school and the wind was crazy in Atlanta! I think she was barely a hurricane still or a very strong tropical storm. All I know is that the winds were scary. I didn't sleep for fear of my neighbors' trees falling on our house, especially my room. Oh, and we lost power too, can't remember for how long.

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Yall should see Eric Blake's twitter an nhc forecaster he knows his stuff and hes got chills with the forecast of a worst case scenario track of a cat 4+

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Weatherlover92 said:
Hmm, Brad Nitz was just talking about the NHC track of Hurricane Irma and it updated to the 5pm track live on air. It's a shift to the west. It showed Irma still a Cat 1 over NE GA.
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Cat 1 you say? Can we get the giant fans out soon? This keeps sounding worse and worse. I'm hoping for the best that it weakens, but it is sounding worse each hour it gets closer.
 
All of this new balloon data being sent 6 hourly is going to be a God send for the models and forecast! Excited to see the 18z GFS.
 
Storm5 said:
The west shift continues

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And here comes the panic I'm sure. I expected the wobble of the models with this morning going east, then it going west again. Watch them wobble a bit more, but I'm sure this is going to end horribly for all of the Floridian peninsula. It's not looking good for all of GA and parts of SC.
 
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