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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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5. The chance of direct impacts is increasing in portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to
specify the magnitude and location of the impacts.
 
NHC now showing the NW bend post landfall
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Looks like it could be worse for SC than FL if it took that track. Not much interaction with land in FL to weaken it.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like it could be worse for SC than FL if it took that track. Not much interaction with land in FL to weaken it.
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Most guidance has this as a Cat 2 or 3 by the time the second landfall happens. Gonna have shear to deal with aside from any land impacts it makes landfall in south Florida . So still a powerful hurricane but hopefully nothing like it's current form

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Storm5 said:
Most guidance has this as a Cat 2 or 3 by the time the second landfall happens. Gonna have shear to deal with aside from any land impacts it makes landfall in south Florida . So still a powerful hurricane but hopefully nothing like it's current form

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I guess it all depends on how much land it is over when and if it hits FL. If it barely hits there or misses completely, it would have a better chance of keeping it's strength all the way up to the GA/SC border.
 
One thing to remember while faster may mean more trough interaction thus more northern pull, it could also make this go farther west if the first trough misses its tug before the second pulls it north.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I guess it all depends on how much land it is over when and if it hits FL. If it barely hits there or misses completely, it would have a better chance of keeping it's strength all the way up to the GA/SC border.
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The flip side is it could possibly stay over Florida longer , run the spine and be MUCH weaker by the time it gets to Georgia

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Storm5 said:
The flip side is it could possibly stay over Florida longer , run the spine and be MUCH weaker by the time it gets to Georgia

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Very little model support for a run up the state, though ... ;)
 
Brick, this will decrease in intensity whether it hits Florida or not, as storm said. Everyone is showing an increase in shear both just before and certainly after leaving or missing Florida The interaction with the trough to the north of it will cause the shear as they get closer to each other, along with the frontal boundary it is going to merge with as it starts transitioning to ET
 
Wow based on latest trends East TN and north GA might have tropical storm winds especially if Irma moves further west post landfall. Bringing more impacts to ETN
 
Nam and GFS initialized futher south than current location. Irma is moving NW and feeling the trough on the east coast tug. not w/nw, but NW atm.
 
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