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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Webberweather53 said:
Definitely not, even if hurricane Irma stays offshore, it's possible that tropical storm force winds could make it into the Gainesville area. Irma's wind field is going to expand a lot when it begins to make its turn towards the north and interact with this ULL.
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Thanks, Man! My staff owes you ... :confused:
Never doubted TS force winds here, but higher have been suggested by models, and I think that is an unlikely event, though 2 days ago I thought it possible ... but ...
Again, Thanks!
Phil
 
EV_WS said:
"there's definitely a good chance to remain a category 4 hurricane if hits the Carolinas".
I promise I'm not trolling. I'm deadly serious. 95% if us are novice. You're talking about the coast.?
Surely, not piedmont. TYIA
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In the piedmont you probably wouldn't experience category 4 force winds, but hurricane force winds would still be possible if the core of Irma passes over you in the Triad, even if the hurricane made landfall > 150-200 miles away.
 
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Ok, back to Irma tracking

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Webberweather53 said:
In the piedmont you probably wouldn't experience category 4 force winds, but hurricane force winds would still be possible if the core of Irma passes over you in the Triad, even if the hurricane made landfall > 150-200 miles away.
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Thank You, Webb !! You're the best!
 
Storm5 said:
Well it was a NE outlier I think

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I know the NAM is the NAM especially with tropical systems but it can sniff out some trends up around 300mb's over the Conus that the other models may miss which is subjectively a steering level for storms this strong. Once again like the other models just another tool for the box. :weenie:
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I just don't see how the "earliest reasonable time" for tropical storm force winds in southern NC is 8pm Sun when the storm is forecast to be in South FL at that time.
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Irma is roughly reaching the size of Texas right now (and could grow larger), it's definitely possible.

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NHC forecasting 155 mph approaching the Upper Keys Saturday Evening, still a 5 before then(160) :eek:

It might just stay a 5 all the way to Florida and set more records
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I just don't see how the "earliest reasonable time" for tropical storm force winds in southern NC is 8pm Sun when the storm is forecast to be in South FL at that time.
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Gradient wind. Look how the nam is expanding the wind field north

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