ForsythSnow
Moderator
I believe we are either in for a weaker storm, or something absolutely dreadfully worse. Irma seems to be at her peak for this cycle of strength and the cloud tops are cold in that area.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yes, that is the 18Z runs. Just remember when looking at those maps that that is as of X time, X being 0Z.
This is so tricky too fast it’s gonna feel that initial weakness (the one now coming through the SE now) however the ridge builds back in and depending on what’s happening and where she is the next break won’t be until the weekend.
accu35
Member
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Ok i understand now, if thats the case then every new model is 6 hrs behide before the initial? Thanks man
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Upper level winds still insanely high, but lower seems to not be. Have to wait for the dropsonde info.
"Even still, Irma could be a category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Carolinas and GA." Please, Eric tell me that is a typo.?.?......
Brent
Member
The NHC has a 3 but if it can stay east of Florida(they take it over Florida and weaken it some which seems to be the most likely solution atm) a 4 is certainly possible I would say
meanwhile I think the winds may be a little lower now... they really didn't find 185 mph last flight either, NHC just kept it there likely because of it going through the islands
Xtreme Weather
Member
912mb?
Should be a incredible nowcast. If the Ridge holds on six hours more, a westward track and speed of twelve mph is 72 miles. That is a huge deal when it comes to landfall.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nah that's not a typo... Even with increased vertical wind shear and dry air into Irma, the water off the SE US is considerably warmer than normal, the steering pattern, lacking a deep, large-scale/positively tilted trough, and given that Irma is probably going to be a large and powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane in the northern Bahamas, it will take a lot of time for Irma to spin down... Considering Irma might actually become even stronger than 160 knots in the Bahamas before it begins to interact w/ the ULL as a substantial poleward outflow channel develops to its north and oceanic heat content gets even higher, there's definitely a good chance to remain a category 4 hurricane if hits the Carolinas.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Xtreme Weather
Member
If it takes longer to make the right hand turn, it's all a wash!?
To be still getting winds like that during a ERC is crazy.
pcbjr
Member
Webb - Serious IMBY question (for the whole peninsula) - Are we getting "safe" in N FL?
Personally, I have doubts, but if you tell me otherwise, my staff has to work Friday!
Brent
Member
Okay maybe it hasn't weakened lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely not, even if hurricane Irma stays offshore, it's possible that tropical storm force winds could make it into the Gainesville area. Irma's wind field is going to expand a lot when it begins to make its turn towards the north and interact with this ULL.
"there's definitely a good chance to remain a category 4 hurricane if hits the Carolinas".
I promise I'm not trolling. I'm deadly serious. 95% if us are novice. You're talking about the coast.?
Surely, not piedmont. TYIA
I promise I'm not trolling. I'm deadly serious. 95% if us are novice. You're talking about the coast.?
Surely, not piedmont. TYIA
Xtreme Weather
Member
In ref to 912mb I grabbed it
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The coast is of course going to get the worst of it but if this is what it looks there is going to be widespread impact well inland.
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