Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Brent]

CMC initialized at 987 mb

Comes close to Miami then goes north

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CMC initialized at 987 mb

Comes close to Miami then goes north

 

[Meteorologist1999]

CMC Shifted West meanwhile GFS Shifted East Wow!! Goodnight Y'all Im Stressed!!

 

[Brent]

UKMET Is way west actually gets into the Gulf and hits on the SW coast of FL

1200UTC 10.09.2017 84 23.2N 81.1W 941 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 96 24.5N 81.4W 926 91
1200UTC 11.09.2017 108 26.1N 81.3W 923 84
0000UTC 12.09.2017 120 28.4N 81.0W 949 78
1200UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.8N 80.8W 959 69
0000UTC 13.09.2017 144 32.9N 80.4W 974 49

 

[deltadog03]

UKMET Is way west actually gets into the Gulf and hits on the SW coast of FL

1200UTC 10.09.2017 84 23.2N 81.1W 941 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 96 24.5N 81.4W 926 91
1200UTC 11.09.2017 108 26.1N 81.3W 923 84
0000UTC 12.09.2017 120 28.4N 81.0W 949 78
1200UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.8N 80.8W 959 69
0000UTC 13.09.2017 144 32.9N 80.4W 974 49

That’s interesting.

 

[Brent]

UKMET plots, white line on the EC Is the prior run

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CMC agrees with gfs

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Wow Canadian is way west of its 12Z run

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Wow Canadian is way west of its 12Z run

to be fair 12z was a way east outlier

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

to be fair 12z was a way east outlier

Hard to say anything is an outlier when it's not even the same from one run to another.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Hard to say anything is an outlier when it's not even the same from one run to another.

great point

 

[Brent]

the CMC seems like its always one extreme or another, remember the Pensacola run?

Then it had an entirely OTS solution I think

 

[Arcc]

UKMET plots, white line on the EC Is the prior run

As I said before, possibly most interesting landfall or not in a long time.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Trough is Stronger and Further South!!

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I saw that. I just tweeted out a similar graphic (giving him credit of course for recognizing this) in that the trough over New England has been progressively slowing down on recent GFS runs. If this trend continues, it could nudge Irma further east than forecast after day 3-4... This could mean a higher probability for a strike on North or South Carolina and it still leaves the door open for a last second OTS route...

 

[VegasEagle]

S

Trough is Stronger and Further South!!

So the storm is going to get stuck for a short time?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Yeah I saw that. I just tweeted out a similar graphic (giving him credit of course for recognizing this) in that the trough over New England has been progressively slowing down on recent GFS runs. If this trend continues, it could nudge Irma further east than forecast after day 3-4... This could mean a higher probability for a strike on North or South Carolina and it still leaves the door open for a last second OTS route...

Euro is going to be interesting.. that's an understatement

 

[malak05]

Euro is going to be interesting.. that's an understatement

Euro gonna go up the West Coast of Florida and we will be back to square one between GFS and Euro

 

[Shawn]

UKMET is generally a good precursor to Euro. Would not be surprised to see Euro west. Especially with the horrible CMC model agreeing with GFS.