That doesn't surprise me. If GA is well west of the center then I'd imagine impacts would be rather minimal.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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Cary_Snow95
Member
But NC is on the NE side so you would think heavier rain amounts
pcbjr
Member
WeatherWatch
Member
If this was a snowstorm, I'd be in the sweet spot. I'd be on the western side of the low the entire event.
Cary_Snow95
Member
BHS1975
Member
Nam is way east
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The NAM said Harvey would landfall in LA.
I was hoping that Irma would scoot northeast and then usher in much colder air on the backside but apparently not. Looks like next week is going to be HOT !
Brent
Member
its a backup to St. Croix(Curacao I think) which is of course close to the eye
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's what I was thinking. It's too risky to fly out of the Islands right now, and Florida is too far away.
Brent
Member
yeah they sent most of the planes out there for now(Barbados was the other place away from the path)
I would assume the speed and how far Northeast we are of the actual Center would be part of that but also models usually are awful with tropical system rain totals. Although with Harvey they were halfway right I think that was due to the fact that it just sat there for so long they had no choice but to spit out those totals
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You would think so but it's a pretty rapid movement on the gfs and euro. Then you have both models showing a rapid ET with a lot of dry air being ingested on the west and south side and only a single band NE of the center. Conversely it's initially riding a top a wedge airmass which should lead to a lot of stratiform rain ahead of the system. Then as the system moves north NC gets into a move feed from the atlantic and possibly some convective elements. A lot at play on both sides
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Does anyone know why Irma is forecast to slow down so much on Fri and Sat ?
pcbjr
Member
Moma bear looking at Poppa bear ... in all seriousness ...
Ridge breaks down and the storm slows until the trough approaches from the west
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It's still a very intricate set of details and quite a few players on the field that could determine the ultimate track of Irma. I've been on the east of Fl then north toward CHS track for a while but it won't take much to get this farther west or east. The SW atlantic ridge, NE trough, short wave over the Rockies, and the shortwave moving into the midsouth are all moving parts in this equation.
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I'm also curious how much the wind field will expand as it makes landfall, especially since it will be transitioning to ET system. When Hugo came through Charlotte I barely got a cloud in the sky, zero effects and then Irene a few years ago we were getting strong TS winds with some H gust well before it ever made landfall due to its expading windfield.
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pcbjr
Member
Understand the concern - but don't get the cart before the horse - we are still about 3 days before a CONUS hit (if it happens)
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