Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[ForsythSnow]

Recon finding lower pressure this pass. I think we are going to run for a record if it continues. And where are all the ERCs? Are they happening differently or am I just missing them?

 

[WeatherLC]

EURO should start soon right?

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

EURO should start soon right?

Hour and a half

 

[stormcentral]

Eye over Virgin Gorda. Took direct hit. Watching from TJUA PR.

 

[Storm5]

12z GEFS has some members that go more west into Cuba after 36 hours

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[Arcc]

Recon finding lower pressure this pass. I think we are going to run for a record if it continues. And where are all the ERCs? Are they happening differently or am I just missing them?

It's acting strange. I watched radar last night and one started and just wrapped and absorbed into the inner eyewall in a few hours.

 

[Storm5]

A SW shift on the GEFS vs the 06z run

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[Storm5]

Through day four much less spread on the GEFS

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[Storm5]

Big SW shift on the 12z GEFS

06z

12z

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[Brick Tamland]

Big SW shift on the 12z GEFS

06z

12z

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Much tighter cluster, too. If you go up the middle, looks like it misses FL and hits between Myrtle Beach and NC.

 

[deltadog03]

I did see more NW movement after paralleling the FL coast I see?

 

[SD]

Nice clustering of the gefs

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[Storm5]

Hard left on the 12z gefs. No gulf tracks and no OTS tracks.

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[Storm5]

To show the big west shift here is the the 06z GEFS and 12z

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[Brent]

this thing gonna set records for longevity as a 5... I think 60 hours is the record

 

[StoneMtnWx]

Hmon landfall into Miami at 99.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Nice clustering of the gefs

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Guess that's what you call a clusterf...

 

[Tarheel1]

To show the big west shift here is the the 06z GEFS and 12z

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Ridge is stronger over the top and building SE, that traps it and forces wear/NW movement

 

[Brent]

live camera in St. Thomas where the eye will be in the next few hours

 

[dsaur]

^ I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't Mike V. earlier in August say that he thought early Sept would be quiet due to MJO and/or the lack of a CCKW?
Like Brent, I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.

Larry, has Sav ever had a direct hit from a major?? I seem to remember a slide by from a 3, but I don't recall a 4 or 5 even getting close. It would be bad news with all the increase in pop, and building all along there. T