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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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If Irma is already further south than what the models show, how much can we trust the models?
 
Brick Tamland said:
If Irma is already further south than what the models show, how much can we trust the models?
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I am losing faith in all of the models at the moment unless she turns northward. I am interested to hear from others about if Irma is just too strong to be handled by the models at the moment.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I am losing faith in all of the models at the moment unless she turns northward. I am interested to hear from others about if Irma is just too strong to be handled by the models at the moment.
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I have seen some pretty big busts from the NHC and models before on storms, but one of the most memorable was just a TS going south of that area in the Caribbean. Anyone have a steering wind map of right now? Maybe the steering winds aren't quite right on the models or Irma is just very resistant.
 
Irma doesn't appear to be that much further south than what the models depicted. Remember, models are there for guidance. They're not a forecast.

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WeatherWatch said:
Irma doesn't appear to be that much further south than what the models depicted. Remember, models are there for guidance. They're not a forecast.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
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FWIW NHC's track in the short term has been nailing the track of Irma's eye so far. It'll be interesting to see if that remains the same throughout today.
 
I was looking at the global wind map and the wind patterns seem to back up the idea that this thing is continuing west instead of going the direction of forecast. I know steering winds are different than the winds shown on the global wind map, I just thought it was worth mentioning. May be completely irrelevant, I'm still learning.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
FWIW NHC's track in the short term has been nailing the track of Irma's eye so far. It'll be interesting to see if that remains the same throughout today.
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But look how the eye has been aiming right for E PR assuming it keeps moving the way it has the last few hours. The heading of at least the last few hours is imo clearly SW of the NHC track and most models.
 
It looks like Irma is moving WNW now. From what it looks like, the eye is going to just miss PR barely. Still, PR will receive the greater impacts since the eye will be so close.

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GaWx said:
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
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Larry - I'm swamped at work because folks want stuff done this week, just in case ... so no time this AM to study, but a short gander supports your observations from this end, FWIW.
Thanks!
Keep us updated and lets hope that the NHC shows this thing OTS at the next full advisory!
Best!
Phil
 
Not much change other than location/pressure being slightly higher

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 6
Location: 18.2°N 64.0°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 918 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
 
145453_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
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