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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Brent said:
track ends around Jacksonville its not really inland just at the coast

looks like it touches land around WPB and then just rides the coastline
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gotcha, sounds like it is trying to push back NW then maybe?
 
It seems just about every major model tonight has the track just off the Florida east coast moving N or NNW. The 18z NAVGEM showed a SC landfall as well. I believe this is an east trend. Time will tell
 
the UKMET is 913 mb at FL landfall... that's the lowest I've EVER seen on the UKMET It usually runs HIGH
 
Pretty good location agreement between NAVGEM and GFS
navgem_z500_mslp_atl_25.png

gfs_z500_mslp_atl_24.png
 
12z NAVGEM supports the east track also. Water vapor imagery makes me think east is more likely.
 
I am super curious to see if the EURO holds or if it swings a little east. GEFS tells me that the GFS op is a bit too Far East. We shall see, but it did come back west from 18z ( I don't put a whole lot of stock in the off hour runs)
 
deltadog03 said:
I am super curious to see if the EURO holds or if it swings a little east. GEFS tells me that the GFS op is a bit too Far East. We shall see, but it did come back west from 18z ( I don't put a whole lot of stock in the off hour runs)
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If you eliminate the 18z run, as it tends to be wonky, then you can see that 06z, 12z, 0z all trended further east and up the coast. It's my personal opinion that the Gefs will trend this way as well in the next hour.
06z GFS
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_22.png

12z GFS
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_21.png

0z
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_19.png
 
I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer but if the CMC is initialized at 987 would that not affect the whole run ?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
If you eliminate the 18z run, as it tends to be wonky, then you can see that 06z, 12z, 0z all trended further east and up the coast. It's my personal opinion that the Gefs will trend this way as well in the next hour.
06z GFS
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_22.png

12z GFS
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_21.png

0z
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_19.png
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Good points. Let’s see what euro does. Split the difference at this point imho
 
deltadog03 said:
Good points. Let’s see what euro does. Split the difference at this point imho
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Exactly my thoughts. A track straight down the spine of Florida seems likely. I am intrigued if it will go back to showing the same solution from a few days ago, where the storm moved up the spine of the state and then re-emerged in the Atlantic before a second landfall somewhere between GA and NC.
 
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