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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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those tropical models are ran with the 18z gfs conditions. No doubt they are east. Gfs loves to overplay killing off ridges and euro loves to over amplify them. So split the middle and you have a track up the spine of FL imho.
 
Recon still supports 161 kts (185mph) with 166kts (191 mph) 380 feet above the surface
recon_AF305-1111A-IRMA_dropsonde6_20170906-0158.png
 
deltadog03 said:
those tropical models are ran with the 18z gfs conditions. No doubt they are east. Gfs loves to overplay killing off ridges and euro loves to over amplify them. So split the middle and you have a track up the spine of FL imho.
Click to expand...


Is it wrong to hope the models really trend west to get egg on Spann's face?
 
From the 11pm...." In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward."
If that's all they got I have about 10% confidence in it moving north and 90% confidence in the vagueness of the forecast at that range.
 
From the forecast discussion NHC is still leaning on the Euro

Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060236.shtml
 
Well at work again, ill be reading but not texting until lunch
 
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