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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Here’s the thing. The ridge now doesn’t really get “torn” until later this week. It’s going to keep a good speed up and not a whole lot motion north of WNW prob. Euro loves to over ridge and gfs loves to under ridge. IMO gfs likely too Far East. GEFS matches well with EPS and euro op
 
Looks like the gefs has the storm a lot weaker than the op as well? I'm assuming because of land interaction
 
I am watching this like a hawk. I'm north of Birmingham and I have a feeling this thing is gonna go just west of Florida before it makes the turn. I have only the spaghetti plots to back that idea up, the possibility is there, just "normal" guidance doesn't fully support that idea. But this isn't normal. I remember Ivan coming in at Gulf Shores as a cat 3. We lost power for a week north of Birmingham. Inland effects and impacts were big. Wherever this thing plows through, its going to be bad. I know what a Cat 3 will do 300 miles inland. I cant imagine something bigger than that raking the entire state of Florida or even hitting the bend and coming up the AL/GA border. Im just hoping it stops going west. I shudder thinking about Irma hitting the gulf.
 
Sam Sparks said:
I am watching this like a hawk. I'm north of Birmingham and I have a feeling this thing is gonna go just west of Florida before it makes the turn. I have only the spaghetti plots to back that idea up, the possibility is there, just "normal" guidance doesn't fully support that idea. But this isn't normal. I remember Ivan coming in at Gulf Shores as a cat 3. We lost power for a week north of Birmingham. Inland effects and impacts were big. Wherever this thing plows through, its going to be bad. I know what a Cat 3 will do 300 miles inland. I cant imagine something bigger than that raking the entire state of Florida or even hitting the bend and coming up the AL/GA border. Im just hoping it stops going west. I shudder thinking about Irma hitting the gulf.
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Good point. Anyone in or near the path 3-5 days out needs to be prepared. Even those of us further inland. See Storm Preparation thread if that's you.
 
Having once lived on the Georgia coast for several years, I shudder when I see tracks that potentially turn this ashore in that area where historically hurricanes do not track. With the shallow ocean depth in the bight, that's one heckuva storm surge that could build with a storm centered in North Florida or just off the NE Florida coast.

Beyond that, even in North Georgia, this is worth keeping an eye on due to the sheer size of the storm. Heavy rain, gusty winds and the ever-present risk of spin-up tornadoes (especially to the N and E of center) could be in play hundreds of miles inland.

Be safe, all! Thanks for the great info and disco. Long way to go. Prayers to all.

--30--
 
Sam Sparks said:
I am watching this like a hawk. I'm north of Birmingham and I have a feeling this thing is gonna go just west of Florida before it makes the turn. I have only the spaghetti plots to back that idea up, the possibility is there, just "normal" guidance doesn't fully support that idea. But this isn't normal. I remember Ivan coming in at Gulf Shores as a cat 3. We lost power for a week north of Birmingham. Inland effects and impacts were big. Wherever this thing plows through, its going to be bad. I know what a Cat 3 will do 300 miles inland. I cant imagine something bigger than that raking the entire state of Florida or even hitting the bend and coming up the AL/GA border. Im just hoping it stops going west. I shudder thinking about Irma hitting the gulf.
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You and me both If that thing is strong enough coming up that path it would lay some hefty damage all the way up thru I-20 and all
 
Hey folks - I lurk here but don't post because I have no meteorological expertise - however I do enjoy the entertaining weather discussions and analyses offered by the members.

But today I did come across some live streaming webcams from locations in or near the path of Irma; they should be interesting to watch over the next day or two (for as long as they're functional, anyway). A few have sound, but most don't. Apologies if some of these have already been posted:

Marriott Frenchman's Cove, St. Thomas USVI
https://www.earthcam.com/world/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas

Caravelle Hotel, St. Croix USVI


Soggy Dollar Bar, Jost Van Dyke, BVI


Pusser's Road Town Harbor, Tortola BVI


Meads Bay, Anguilla
http://www.earthcam.com/world/anguilla/meadsbay/?cam=meadsbay_hd

SBH airport, St. Barts

and


Hilton Hotel, San Juan PR
https://www.earthcam.com/usa/puertorico/sanjuan/?cam=sanjuan3
 
Not gonna start live reports and PBB - but either the media has totally freaked folks or folks are being very smart - either way - slap dab here in the north most central part of FL, Publix is bare, lines are at the gas stations into the roads, and a D cell battery is worth more than a silver dollar ...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I can understand how some would think this is some sort of biblical apocalypse. I mean Harvey and now this ? Assuming this storm doesnt weaken dramatically, when''s the last time the US dealt with 2 storms the magnitude of Harvey and Irma in the same year ?
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1. I think 1915 was the last time 2 cat 4's hit the US.

2. She seems to be moving slightly south of the projected NHC path and may be headed for a direct strike on PR. Do others agree? I wonder if her extreme strength is causing this (I recall clearly Gilbert cooling forecasters with it continuing more westbound than projected) and do still wonder if she'll ultimately go much further west than anticipated and threaten the Gulf.
 
GaWx said:
1. I think 1915 was the last time 2 cat 4's hit the US.

2. She seems to be moving slightly south of the projected NHC path and may be headed for a direct strike on PR. Do others agree? I wonder if her extreme strength is causing this (I recall clearly Gilbert cooling forecasters with it continuing more westbound than projected) and do still wonder if she'll ultimately go much further west than anticipated and threaten the Gulf.
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I think that the strength is what is going to cause the biggest issue in the forecast. The models just can't handle a storm of this strength very well.
 
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