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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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DadOfJax said:
1. Historical storm track based on current position

2. Model bias's of ULL/troughs to retrograde NW as the timing nears

3. Model bias's to break down ridges too quick

4 Current westward trends of ensembles

to name a few
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I agree with everything but 4. Compared to yesterday the west trend has stopped and actually trended east somewhat
 
DadOfJax said:
1. Historical storm track based on current position

2. Model bias's of ULL/troughs to retrograde NW as the timing nears

3. Model bias's to break down ridges too quick

4 Current westward trends of ensembles

to name a few
Click to expand...

But unless the shortwave over the southeast goes poof completely, this is at the very most going to track up the western side of the Florida peninsula...that shortwave is keeping Irma from just barging into the GOM.
 
Anyone wanna join me in starting a Rosary that this bad little girl just decides to change airlines and vacation in Iceland?
 
VegasEagle said:
Wow! Thank you!
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I can't find a concrete (lol) answer honestly. The Jarrell Texas tornado from 1997, tore lots of road asphalt up, but I can't find even an estimated wind speed.. just that it was an EF-5.

On a side note, in my research just now, I learned the Fujita scale may go from 0-12 instead of what we usually hear as EF0- EF5. It really just stops at 5 because there has never been an "F6". The highest wind speed measured or computed looks to be 318, not 319 (especially at the surface) that would be needed to go to F6 ... at the time before changes were made.

So overall, back to the point... an EF-5 says windspeeds greater than 200mph. So it's somewhere around that part.. and I'm sure road conditions,.water, all kinds of other things you would take into account. How old it is, how well it was done etc.
 
18z is still north a pretty good amount
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_11.png
 
Brent said:
916.4 mb per recon

Still strengthening
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That is scary! I saw a post that said an outter wall may be developing which will likely facilitate an ERC soon!
 
18z GFS OP looks like it could be a bad run if you're in GA/SC. :(
 
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