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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Spann went all in on this NoT going into the gulf except for right by the keys. Can't wait for the spin , please let this go just up the western side of Florida

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accu35 said:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/image...a8dc02d801450a9ee65db48f202d27b4103b2c53a.gif
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That seriously looks like the worlds largest Pacman!

This really is starting to look more and more catastrophic for the islands. I know they are small but this is getting down right scary for those folks. Luis damaged or destroyed up to 90% of the homes on some islands and the strongest sea level winds were gusting around 135. It spawned multiple F3 tornadoes, something they rarely if ever see. It also caused a 60 foot rouge wave that broadsided the QE2 I believe.
This storm is on a whole different quantum level. I don't even know how one would prepare for something like this. Every tick west is putting more islands in the firing line. It's going to take a lot of rum after this passes by, if there's anything left. I hope it takes a big wobble NW.
 
Jackstraw said:
That seriously looks like the worlds largest Pacman!

This really is starting to look more and more catastrophic for the islands. I know they are small but this is getting down right scary for those folks. Luis damaged or destroyed up to 90% of the homes on some islands and the strongest sea level winds were gusting around 135. It spawned multiple F3 tornadoes, something they rarely if ever see. It also caused a 60 foot rouge wave that broadsided the QE2 I believe.
This storm is on a whole different quantum level. I don't even know how one would prepare for something like this. Every tick west is putting more islands in the firing line. It's going to take a lot of rum after this passes by, if there's anything left. I hope it takes a big wobble NW.
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love the PigPen, btw!
 
Storm5 said:
Spann went all in on this NoT going into the gulf except for right by the keys. Can't wait for the spin , please let this go just up the western side of Florida

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Idk why he keeps saying that, some models are still showing Irma going west of FL. Since there is still model's showing diffrent tracks, saying it won't go into the Gulf is a no, no.

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Jackstraw said:
That seriously looks like the worlds largest Pacman!

This really is starting to look more and more catastrophic for the islands. I know they are small but this is getting down right scary for those folks. Luis damaged or destroyed up to 90% of the homes on some islands and the strongest sea level winds were gusting around 135. It spawned multiple F3 tornadoes, something they rarely if ever see. It also caused a 60 foot rouge wave that broadsided the QE2 I believe.
This storm is on a whole different quantum level. I don't even know how one would prepare for something like this. Every tick west is putting more islands in the firing line. It's going to take a lot of rum after this passes by, if there's anything left. I hope it takes a big wobble NW.
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I agree, with a storm this big and powerful, those folks on the island would be greatly in trouble. You have to literally dig a hole and hide. Sad to say
 
The inland NW bend continues to show
94e8e738bad29deee7fe80354f5eb606.jpg


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pcbjr said:
You wannna see some model differences, even this "close"?
Click days 6 and 7 on each model at the top of this link ...
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
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Yeah, I'm wondering who wins this derby, and what it might portend for winter model runs. I don't want to be on the right side, but I also don't want to see Fla. shredded all the way up. and I don't much like it skipping back out to sea then slamming Sav. Not many good options here :)
 
dsaur said:
Yeah, I'm wondering who wins this derby, and what it might portend for winter model runs. I don't want to be on the right side, but I also don't want to see Fla. shredded all the way up. and I don't much like it skipping back out to sea then slamming Sav. Not many good options here :)
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Beer in one option - it is after 5:00; other options are left to the collective imagination ...
 
Honestly...while I've seen some nutty things it's too late for a really significant shift unless that shortwave over the southeast magically goes bye bye, then every option is on the table again.

At worst for the gulf, it'd track up the western part of the Florida peninsula spin, imo...
 
pcbjr said:
Beer in one option - it is after 5:00; other options are left to the collective imagination ...
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So just sleep thru it in a somnambulistic haze? lol. I guess if I did a hurricane party the tidal surge won't get up here. Still, it's those scary spinners, one right after the other, that gets my pants messed up, even if they are 0's, 1, and 2's.
 
DustinWX said:
Why do you say this?
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1. Historical storm track based on current position

2. Model bias's of ULL/troughs to retrograde NW as the timing nears

3. Model bias's to break down ridges too quick

4 Current westward trends of ensembles

to name a few
 
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