Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Jackstraw]

Also of note, especially for the islands atm, is the really strong surface winds are around the 950 to 980 mb isobars with the strongest around 960. The angle this thing is supposed to come in is going to put some of those islands in those isobars for an extended period as opposed to taking it head on, blasted, calm, blasted then bye bye.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The 12Z Euro initiate too Weak, Could play a role in track!!

 

[Metwannabe]

Just continues to blow my mind to see that massive trough in the Eastern US and a hurricane not get kicked ots.... I know it's different setup but still

 

[RollTide18]

Officially the second strongest Atlantic Hurricane on record tying Gilbert, Wilma, and 1935 Keys.

 

[BHS1975]

Just continues to blow my mind to see that massive trough in the Eastern US and a hurricane not get kicked ots.... I know it's different setup but still

Yeah I'm very skeptical of the western tracks.


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[Metwannabe]

So far thru 96 Euro very similar to it's 0z run with landfall in Cuba

 

[Metwannabe]

@114 still over Cuba, this is good for US I would think nearly 20 hours over Cuba, slowing down too

 

[Snowfan]

The more slower over Cuba, the more weaker.

 

[Metwannabe]

Exiting Cuba @120 and starting to head north

 

[noda-wx]

But if it initialized too weak like stated above, would that not give this run a south bias?

 

[Snowfan]

My gut says not trusting this run.

 

[Shawn]

But if it initialized too weak like stated above, would that not give this run a south bias?

That is a good point, actually!

 

[Metwannabe]

But if it initialized too weak like stated above, would that not give this run a south bias?

I'm not sure about that, certainly gives one pause but correct me if I'm wrong Euro been initializing Irma too weak the entire time and hasn't been too far off with track right?
Anyway this run exits Cuba west of it's 0z run... see where it goes from here

 

[Metwannabe]

Direct hit on Key West and heading north towards Naples....

 

[Shawn]

Even AFTER the cuba land interaction, for an extended period of time... it's still 935mb or so when it goes to FL! Jeeze!

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, I'm not really buying the Euro's solution at least that far south, the initialization is absolutely ludicrous... I'm sorry but there's no excuse for the Euro with a horizontal resolution of 9km to be incapable of resolving a category 5 hurricane with a 30 mile wide eye as a 950mb ish TC... Even though as I mentioned a few days ago the GFS uses a "Vortex bogusing" scheme to help the model initialize the inner cores of TCs by inserting an idealistic vortex in place of Irma, Irma is pretty close to being an idealistic, symmetric vortex in it's own right at the moment and that methodology is probably pretty applicable in this case. Thus, I'd probably be more skeptical of the Euro solution here...

 

[Webberweather53]

Even AFTER the cuba land interaction, for an extended period of time... it's still 935mb or so when it goes to FL! Jeeze!

Yeah the terrain in northern Cuba is pretty flat, it would only serve as a minor speed bump especially for a monster like this.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Goes to show you just how bad the euro has gotten. It can't even get initialization correct. 40mb off yet we expect the "king" to be correct 5-7 days out? Not anymore.

 

[Storm5]

Still a little west of 00z

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[Storm5]

CMC outlier west GFS is furthest right and Euro is down the middle

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