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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Eric, can you give your thoughs on the currents direction Irma is heading and is she gonna interact with the islands more and create a new possible path? Thanks accu.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Not sure how this compares to 6z, but what I find interesting is there's not really that much of a spread. Most are siding on a FL hit or a GA/SC hit with a couple of outliers
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Yeah compared to the 6z it looked a little west early as arcc mentioned, it comes in Fl around the keys but then the mean looks to be just off Fl/Ga with a 2nd landfall around Ga/Sc border....
 
gefs members, 1st landfall....

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png


gefs members, 2nd landfall (if that occurred)
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_28.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
I kind of had a bad feeling it would make it to a 5, but I never even thought a 185 mph cat 5 was possible here. Just insane to think that it could gain more strength too, and maybe even around the Keys.
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This storm is absolutely insane, not just in terms of intensity, but for a cat 5 of this intensity, the eye is exceptionally large and the fact that it formed so far east, like if anywhere in the Atlantic was gonna produce a monster like this I'd place my bets on the western Caribbean not east of the Antilles... There aren't many storms left that provide a valid comparison to match the combination of size and strength Irma has, storms like this only come around once every generation or two (or at least historically speaking)... This is definitely the most photogenic hurricanes I've ever seen in the Atlantic, topping Isabel, which quite frankly Irma would eat Isabel for lunch.
 
Arcc said:
One thing to bring up again, we are relying on weak diffuse trough/ULL to pull this north. We have trouble getting these right a day or two before they come in. Models will bounce for a while.
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A page behind with this question but if this feature wasn't actually forecasted as it currently is showing on models, wouldn't this storm stay on a west, northwest heading until another feature came into play?
 
Webberweather53 said:
This storm is absolutely insane, not just in terms of intensity, but for a cat 5 of this intensity, the eye is exceptionally large and the fact that it formed so far east, like if anywhere in the Atlantic was gonna produce a monster like this I'd place my bets on the western Caribbean not east of the Antilles... There aren't many storms left that provide a valid comparison to match the combination of size and strength Irma has, storms like this only come around once every generation or two (or at least historically speaking)... This is definitely the most photogenic hurricane I've ever seen in the Atlantic, topping Isabel, which quite frankly Irma would eat Isabel for lunch.
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Radar and satellite images are reminding me of Andrew, also a very symmetric storm.
 
I think that weak UL/ML low that began to form over the central carib.. yesterday morning is going to impart some western "pull", for lack of a better word at the moment, on the storm. I'm not saying it's going straight west but I think that feature is imparting some westerly tendencies. Also if/when the storm gains a bit of latitude that low could aid in ventilating the storm. There's several small scale features that seem to be enabling a more westward component other than the obvious big players and it may have taken the models some time to get those features into a higher res time frame in order to resolve them which has caused the forecast to move west with time over the last couple of days. The big turn North is just now entering the models skill looking forward in time and runs over the next 24 hours should give us a better idea of if/and when that will occur. Just my afternoon 2 cents. Great site btw :)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
 
12 hwrf brings Irma into Cuba but Hmon rides east coast of Fl similar to GFS
hmon_mslp_wind_11_L_42.png
 
Man, 185 mph cane in the Atlantic, is just crazy! Then the NW turn to the Carolinas! Storm 5, got a GFS precip map for next 10 days!
 
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