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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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Twister said:
I guess that could be a good thing for NW upstate. The further east it is the better.

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Exactly my thoughts. I feel it's just gonna run the savannah river..and that's where the 70mph gusts are being reported and the heaviest banding. The rainfall totals are gonna break every record known up this way. That mistake graphic nws put out is already correct here for the total...over 10"
 
If you extrap out its current course it would pass just east of Columbia and core Charlotte which would probably make things interesting in RDU and even eastern/coastal SC/NC...at 30 mph it will be in Charlotte by 10am....she is suppose to be west of Asheville NC by then so she needs to turn NNW now to pull that off IMO...
 
It looks like the Icon was right again about a major weather system days ahead of time. It’s rather baffling when the system is literally moving NE that you don’t at least widen your cone to include all possibilities.

Snowflowxxl said:
I’ve seen mets on WSB and CBS who are both still trying to say Atlanta could get 60 mph gust. They also show a path that has no chance of verifying. They all need to drop the act and report the facts
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Don’t even get me started on these guys. They continued to forecast rain from the Labor Day storm while it was obvious models were completely off about it locally.
 

530 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SWANNANOA RIVER VALLEY BELOW NORTH FORK
RESERVOIR...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT FRIDAY.

* AT 530 AM EDT, BUNCOMBE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS REPORTING
SIGNIFICANT FLOWS COMING FROM THE NORTH FORK RESERVOIR ON THE
NORTH FORK SWANNANOA RIVER DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OBSERVED
SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLOWS ARE
ORIGINATING FROM THE HEADWATERS OF THE SWANNANOA RIVER NEAR AND
ABOVE MONTREAT AND BLACK MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS OTHER TRIBUTARIES OF
THE SWANNANOA RIVER. RAPID RISES ARE IMMINENT ALONG THE SWANNANOA
RIVER, RESULTING IN MAJOR, CATASTOPHIC, AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC
FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE VALLEY. THERE IS AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS FLOODING WILL EXCEED THE FLASH FLOODING
OBSERVED IN SEPTEMBER 2004. PREPARE NOW AND HEED ALL EVACUATION
AND OTHER GUIDANCE FROM BUNCOMBE COUNTY AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
IN ORDER TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

* ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS IMMINENT FOR THE NORTH FORK
SWANNANOA RIVER AND THE SWANNANOA RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE DEVELOPING MAJOR FLOOD CONDITIONS,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIALLY HISTORIC RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SWANNANOA RIVER VALLEY BELOW
NORTH FORK RESERVOIR. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED.

IMPACT...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND NOW! LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS, SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN
AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE, EAST ASHEVILLE, WEST ASHEVILLE, NORTH
ASHEVILLE, BLACK MOUNTAIN, SWANNANOA, BILTMORE FOREST, WARREN
WILSON COLLEGE

A SHELTERING LOCATION IS OPEN AT THE WNC AGRICULTURAL CENTER.
PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BUNCOMBE COUNTY GOVERNEMENT
AT HTTPS://buncombeready.org.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

HEED AND OBEY ALL GUIDANCE FROM BUNCOMBE COUNTY GOVERNMENT AND LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND THE LIVES OF YOUR FAMILY.

BE AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND DO NOT DRIVE ON FLOODED ROADS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.



LAT...LON 3559 8236 3555 8250 3555 8256 3560 8259
3560 8257 3562 8250 3563 8241 3563 8240
3564 8239 3564 8238 3569 8235 3568 8233
3567 8229 3560 8229

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

https://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
FLASH FLOOD WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 535 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
TORNADO WARNING COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 534 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 530 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 527 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
TORNADO WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 514 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
TORNADO WARNING COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 514 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 512 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 511 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
 
J.C. said:
It looks like the Icon was right again about a major weather system days ahead of time. It’s rather baffling when the system is literally moving NE that you don’t at least widen your cone to include all possibilities.


Don’t even get me started on these guys. They continued to forecast rain from the Labor Day storm while it was obvious models were completely off about it locally.
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The baffling part to me is why they narrowed the cone so much when strong guidance was outside of it. The other thing is that typically when a hurricane is moving as quickly as this one has been and picking up speed, you usually don’t see the sharp turns in direction that they were showing.
 
Charlotte point and click says gust as high as 50 later today, they already gusting low 40's, if Helene does not get moving NW soon they might get gust pushing cane force even there in a few hrs.
 
546 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ACROSS MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
AVERY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
MITCHELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT FRIDAY.

* AT 546 AM EDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTY, ESPECIALLY BAKERSVILLE
AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
7 TO 10 INCHES HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES, FLOODED
BRIDGES, INUNDATED AND DAMAGED STRUCTURES, AND ONGOING WATER
RESCUES ACROSS BOTH COUNTIES. MITCHELL COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT THERE IS A SHELTER FOR THOSE DISPLACED BY
FLOODING LOCATED AT MITCHELL HIGH SCHOOL AT 416 LEDGER SCHOOL ROAD.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ACROSS MITCHELL AND AVERY
COUNTIES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED.

IMPACT...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND NOW! LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS, SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN
AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE, HOMES, AND BUSINESSES.
SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE THREAT.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
SPRUCE PINE, NEWLAND, BANNER ELK, ELK PARK, BAKERSVILLE, BEECH
MOUNTAIN IN AVERY COUNTY, CROSSNORE, SUGAR MOUNTAIN, SEVEN DEVILS,
LINVILLE FALLS, B.R. PARKWAY-LITTLE SWITZERLAND TO LINVILLE, B.R.
PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO GRANDFATHER, GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN STATE
PARK, B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND, ALTAMONT,
INGALLS, MINNEAPOLIS, PINEOLA, LINVILLE AND BANDANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

HEAVY RAIN IS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE RISK OF LANDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. SLIDES
CAN DESTROY SINGLE HOMES AND OTHER STRUCTURES AND LARGE SECTIONS OF
ROADS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA, YOU SHOULD NOT TRAVEL, EXCEPT
TO MOVE AWAY FROM FLASH FLOOD OR LANDSLIDE DANGERS. IF YOU ARE IN
THE VICINITY OF A STREAM NEAR THE HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ON A
MOUNTAINSIDE, OR AT THE BASE OF A MOUNTAIN OR IN A COVE, MOVE
IMMEDIATELY TO A SAFER LOCATION.

TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

BE AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS AND DO NOT DRIVE ON FLOODED ROADS.



LAT...LON 3629 8192 3621 8190 3607 8174 3596 8181
3600 8190 3588 8199 3582 8212 3584 8215
3593 8215 3595 8220 3601 8220 3599 8225
3605 8230 3603 8234 3608 8235 3607 8242
3616 8221 3615 8215 3610 8213 3612 8203

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR


FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 557 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
TORNADO WARNING WILMINGTON NC - KILM 554 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 554 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
TORNADO WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 550 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
TORNADO WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 547 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 546 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 546 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

 
8’ tide in the Charleston Harbor because of the storm. Nearing double digit tornado warnings in the Charleston metro since 2AM. This is just as much of an impact as Debby locally and we still have a few more hours
 
chuckhendo said:
Are we already outside of the NHC cone that was issued at 5am? Sure looks close
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Yes. It’s about to cross the Savannah River into SC. As well as the NHC did with forecasting the RI and landfall point, the inland track is an utter disaster. If it doesn’t turn soon it’s literally going to track between GSP and CLT

Edit: looking at the satellite, if it doesn’t turn soon the center might actually go between Gastonia and Charlotte
 
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