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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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Incredible to see hurricane warnings so far north. Still think ffc have wind gusts at my local athens too low. Only showing 50 to 60mph gusts while gsp has their southwest counties with gusts to 65. Fully expect hurricane force gusts here. Heavy rain currently..up to about 5.5 inches so far.
 
There it is, she is now cat 4.

Code: 
684 
WTNT64 KNHC 262218
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene 
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 
130 mph (215 km/h).  The minimum central pressure has also decreased 
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

SUMMARY OF 620 PM EDT...2220 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
 
Ethan80963 said:
Click to expand...

Big event for the NC mountains and escarpment. Asheville (Swannanoa river) Black Mountain, Old Fort, Marion, Upper Catawba river (Catawba Falls) going to rival Opal in 1996 which was extreme flooding. Catawba river in Pleasant Gardens I think will challenge record river gauge at 17.6

Catawba River near Pleasant Gardens

water.noaa.gov water.noaa.gov
 
SuperNET said:
Big event for the NC mountains and escarpment. Asheville (Swannanoa river) Black Mountain, Old Fort, Marion, Upper Catawba river (Catawba Falls) going to rival Opal in 1996 which was extreme flooding. Catawba river in Pleasant Gardens I think will challenge record river gauge at 17.6

Catawba River near Pleasant Gardens

water.noaa.gov water.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
Asheville spent Millions on the River Arts District. Apartment complex just got approved. It will all be under water.
 
Arcc said:
Interesting dynamic, IR is probably the best it has looked but the eyewall on radar has degraded tremendously on the western side over the past hour. That said that isn’t unexpected in hurricanes under these circumstances.

That said that eastern wall is a beast.
Click to expand...
I think what you are seeing is that the radar beam isn't able to penetrate the Eastern eye wall twice, so you simply can't see it on radar.
 
Makeitsnow said:
Incredible to see hurricane warnings so far north. Still think ffc have wind gusts at my local athens too low. Only showing 50 to 60mph gusts while gsp has their southwest counties with gusts to 65. Fully expect hurricane force gusts here. Heavy rain currently..up to about 5.5 inches so far.
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t be surprised to see FFC consider extending hurricane warnings further north into some NE GA counties. I’m curious if it’s even a possible scenario currently being discussed.
 
severestorm said:
Asheville spent Millions on the River Arts District. Apartment complex just got approved. It will all be under water.
Click to expand...
I hope not - but you have the Swannanoa and the French Broad both experiencing major flooding as per water.noaa.gov gauge data suggests. If this qpf outlook validates - and we see another 10-12" on top of what was recorded yesterday, today and tomorrow - there will be big problems in Asheville and surrounding areas.
 
uh oh.
Code: 
                     UW - CIMSS                    
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                    ADT-Version 9.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  26 SEP 2024    Time :   221020 UTC
      Lat :   27:54:35 N     Lon :   84:18:00 W

    
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.3 / 929.2mb/122.2kt

    
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.3     6.3     6.9
 
Shawn said:
uh oh.
Code: 
                     UW - CIMSS                   
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE     
                    ADT-Version 9.1              
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm     

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  26 SEP 2024    Time :   221020 UTC
      Lat :   27:54:35 N     Lon :   84:18:00 W

   
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.3 / 929.2mb/122.2kt

   
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.3     6.3     6.9
Click to expand...
Storms just don’t weaken in the gulf. Quite the opposite. They always get worse.
 
crecre9 said:
I think what you are seeing is that the radar beam isn't able to penetrate the Eastern eye wall twice, so you simply can't see it on radar.
Click to expand...

I guess it is possible, but earlier I could see both walls pretty well for pretty much most of the day and other radars though far away showed the same. The western side has been weaker, but that consolidation earlier was impressive.
 
The track is going to be important. The only semi major metro area near where its landfalling is Tallahassee (which is well inland, but will have significant wind impacts depending on the track), but it looks like they could sneak by just west of the eye depending on how things develop. That would be huge for them as it’s much weaker on the western side at this point. It’s important to note KTLH is southwest of town itself.
 
superjames1992 said:
The track is going to be important. The only semi major metro area near where its landfalling is Tallahassee (which is well inland, but will have significant wind impacts depending on the track), but it looks like they could sneak by just west of the eye depending on how things develop. That would be huge for them as it’s much weaker on the western side at this point. It’s important to note KTLH is southwest of town itself.
Click to expand...
I've gotta think that even if they're on the west side, they'll at least get Hurricane gusts ? Heck way up in GA 200 miles north is forecast to get Hurricane gusts on the west side of the storm.
 
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