Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[SnowwxAtl]

NAM has it riding the AL/GA border

I don't trust the NAM at all...I toss

 

[Downeastnc]

I remember that’s what happened with Ike in 2008. Never got above 110mph winds despite a pressure that would have been a higher end cat 4

Yeah pressure does not always equal winds, I got into the SW eye of Isabel, pressure was 970 mb and peak wind gust was 45 mph....once Helene gets inland there will be a lot of things that factor in to how well it can transport the stronger wind to the surface. Still gust well into TS strength could happen even several hundred miles inland especially if it is moving 25 mph....

 

[Triplephase93]

Some 8-12 inch rain totals now showing in north GA.
View attachment 151706

Could see some of the heavier Precip move west into the Chatt area. We are in a drought but don’t need that much in a two day period.

 

[tractor girl]

Is it too early for an eye to develop? Because I'm seeing something that looks an awful lot like an eye:

 

[Weatherlover92]

I remember that’s what happened with Ike in 2008. Never got above 110mph winds despite a pressure that would have been a higher end cat 4

That’s kinda comparing apples to oranges though isn’t it? Ike’s core traveled over Cuba twice before emerging into the GOM. That played a factor in its lack of recovery as well besides its large size.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The N

Is it too early for an eye to develop? Because I'm seeing something that looks an awful lot like an eye:

The 11 PM position was 20 N. which would place the COC on the southern periphery of that convective mass. That said, it sure does look like an eye. Relocation? I doubt it, but maybe.

 

[accu35]

Can I post this?

 

[vtrap90]

Looking pretty mean right now.

 

[ILMRoss]

The N

The 11 PM position was 20 N. which would place the COC on the southern periphery of that convective mass. That said, it sure does look like an eye. Relocation? I doubt it, but maybe.

not an eye, just a particularly strong convective burst

 

[wxdaniel]

I understand that NOAA Chat is unavailable since it moved to Slack is there another way to get real live storm reports?

 

[jrips27]

0z GFS

Sub 975mb well past Atlanta/Athens

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

View attachment 151712Can I post this?

I'll take that look from a rainfall perspective!!

 

[tractor girl]

GFS landfall as 955 CAT 3, tracks more to east over Athens

 

[Makeitsnow]

Gfs is stronger this run inland...will be around 970mb near Athens.

 

[accu35]

Gfs basically same position as 18z for landfall. I really don’t look at the globals in the short range alot, the hurricane models are the best hands down. I say gfs and the Icon are the eastern while the rest west. Blend it in then you have a apalachicola landfall perhaps

 

[tractor girl]

How are the hurricane models inland?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

CMC is less intense than the rest, but a little further west. Good night tracker peeps. Back at it in the AM.

 

[Brent]

She's cooking now

 

[jrips27]

GFS wind gusts

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: strongest run yet with 977 mb a few hours before a Thu night Apalachee Bay landfall. Keep in mind this tends to be a conservative model this far out.
Helene then goes to far NE GA, well E of ATL.