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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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@GaWx , do you have the lat lons from the 12z UKMET? I don't have inbetween frames but it looks pretty similar to it's last run. A bit stronger
 
Eye now surrounded by very cold cloud tops
Appears due north for quite a few frames....and with the blow up of convection on the SE side of the COC, maybe even a little NNW component to it in the last couple of frames. Any westward component would only be wobbles though, as the general motion is going to be north or somewhat northeast with the steering currents.
 
That gap of no convection is not the eye. The COC is to the NW under cloud cover. That gap is likely more dry air being pulled in to the COC.
Correct....however I think that dry air will wrap up, get spit out, and essentially become the mechanism for the eye to form as that process occurs.
 
Be careful with the intensification not being elevated at this point. This is going over warm water in a relatively low shear area and it has plenty of time to explode before reaching Fl. The one saving grace as it approaches Fl is the relatively shallow water it will enter just before landfall. I have seen many storms lose intensity in the gulf as it encounters shallower waters
 
It appears that Allen Huffman reposted the rainfall graphic of 20-30 inches in Brevard area. So, there's the legs to that photo just posted.
 
This is from Glenn Burns:
Just out of a conference with our NWS office. Here is what I learned.
1. Storm is expected to be a low end Cat 3
at landfall
2. Do not concentrate on center. The
wind field is HUGE, at the upper end of
the scale
3. This will still be an unprecedented
event with rain and wind gusts of
50-70 mph.
during the overnight hours
4. Rainfall will increase in intensity
overnight with 4-6 additional inches
and up to 8 inches for NE mountains
5. Winds will increase in north Georgia
with tropical storm force SUSTAINED
winds moving north into Macon around
midnight and 3 am in the metro, then
6 am in far north Georgia.
6. Severe threat for brief spin up
tornadoes are more likely in southeast
Georgia.
7. The EXACT track is still in flux and
will be until we see exactly where land
fall occurs.
8. High probability of trees and
powerlines going down. Power
outages will be very likely.
9. As the storm moves in our winds will
be from the east and southeast. As.
It passes winds will change direction
and will be from the west and
northwest. When this happens,
winds will be the strongest. Trees
blowing one way will then be blown
another way…many will go down.
10. Our NWS projected path is east of
the NHC official forecast. We will get
an update at 4 pm.
Hope this answers some of your questions
 
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