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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene
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NWMSGuy
Member
12Z EURO looks to have this sitting in the western gulf for hours up to hour 240.
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Brent
Member
This is gonna be a huge mess and a long thread I predict
NWMSGuy
Member
Definitely will be interesting to follow this one.
Henry2326
Member
Bad ass....not big ass. Lol
Henry2326
Member
This is what happens when you have nothing to watch for 3 months, although you were told it was going to a barn burner of shows to watch.
Brent
Member
Also there's a 922 mb on the gefs 
lexxnchloe
Member
Like someone said its just drifting
Downeastnc
Member
These big gyres are really not fun since it's almost impossible at this lead to predict where the vorticity will really consolidate or if the whole gyre is just going to lift north
Brent
Member
Yeah it could still get buried in Mexico in theory. Can't be ruled out anyway til we see where the center forms
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS back to a weak cat1. Faster=weaker
it was here at hour 210 at 12z
it was here at hour 210 at 12z
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lexxnchloe
Member
Maine hit. Quite a difference as the EURO has it drifting in the BOC at the same time
Let's see what is the sloppier mess, the eventual storm or this thread.... my bets on the thread.
Shaggy
Member
Ensembles still have a couple.of camps it seems
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I generally like the overall look on the aifs the last several runs holistically.
If we had the kind of Central America Gyre case where we were just waiting for the Kelvin wave envelope to cross Central America to trigger everything, I’d agree with the euro on keeping development entirely in the BOC knowing how the gfs likes to speed these things up.
Oth, the trough that digs into the southern gulf in a few days and triggers QG ascent in the western Caribbean & subsidence + shear in the bay of Campeche changes the calculus of this whole setup a lot.
Eventually, the environment gets better in the bay of Campeche, but it takes longer to get conducive for large scale convective heating than in the western Caribbean
If we had the kind of Central America Gyre case where we were just waiting for the Kelvin wave envelope to cross Central America to trigger everything, I’d agree with the euro on keeping development entirely in the BOC knowing how the gfs likes to speed these things up.
Oth, the trough that digs into the southern gulf in a few days and triggers QG ascent in the western Caribbean & subsidence + shear in the bay of Campeche changes the calculus of this whole setup a lot.
Eventually, the environment gets better in the bay of Campeche, but it takes longer to get conducive for large scale convective heating than in the western Caribbean
ILL TAKE THE RED ARROWS ON THE ATTACHED PICTURE
REF THE BLACK ARROW AS THAT IS MY HOUSE
REF THE BLACK ARROW AS THAT IS MY HOUSE
Gonna be a long 10 days or so with people living and dying by each individual model run and posting what they like! Has it formed yet?
0Z UKMET: TCG at 168 hours 75 miles SSW of W tip of Cuba (50 miles NE of 12Z’s hour 168 position, which is 12 hours earlier); already down to 1001 mb:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.8N 85.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2024 168 20.8N 85.3W 1001 32
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.8N 85.3W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2024 168 20.8N 85.3W 1001 32
lexxnchloe
Member
CMC and gfs not worth posting a map about. Very weak and basically nothing
Shaggy
Member
Ensembles remain very active not just for this storm but the others as well.
lexxnchloe
Member
Makes a comeback at 06z
Henry2326
Member
Icon and GFS are on point on 9/27.
The rest of them all over the place.
The rest of them all over the place.
Henry2326
Member
How different can they be????
Henry2326
Member
NHC extends the circle to the west.
As much as I’ve been down on the Icon at times the last few years, I gotta say, it’s done very well with predicting storm development this year
Shaggy
Member
I've started looking at the icon more than I do the cmc. It sometimes does good with a system and sometimes it misses too
NWMSGuy
Member
For what it's worth, the 0Z Spire model moves this close to the Big Bend area before moving it northwest from there.
That would certainly be more in line with climo for late September
NoSnowATL
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
thanksgivingbrown
Member
Man if those model runs come to fruition Saturday 28th in Tuscaloosa is gonna be a mess for the big game between Bama and Georgia.
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