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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter SD
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weatherfide
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The 06Z NAM has ultimate wind gusts as high as 103 mph over Macon Thursday night/Friday morning! That's EF1 wind speed. I'd probably shave 20% off that output but still dangerous.
Through hour 42, 12k NAM is a little stronger and a little slower.
Psalm 148:8
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Dude! I’m in the bullseye!! Troup County GA. Right on GA/AL line!
RoddyPiper
Member
We are boiling tops now with beautiful outflow on the western side.....classic look for rapid intensification!
Brent
Member
Recon supports a hurricane
BHS1975
Member
Interesting the 3k NAM pushed most of the tornado threat this run into SC and not N&W GA(excluding some of SE GA and border counties). It also has a max of 26.70" in the mountains.
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iGRXY
Member
WPC and the National Blend for the Upstate, NE Georgia, and Western NC. Along and west of US221 and north to Highway 11 looks good for 6-10". Peak gusts are around 40mph on average with the blend. Power Outages seems very very likely.
NoSnowATL
Member
On right on the blue line on the west side of the track on that map.
Hopefully this is overdone as these are well under W GA low SLP records.
been looking at some mexican/cuban radars (which are terrible) and some fun observations:
it does look like helene took a quick crack at a pinhole last night before giving up (pinhole eyes, from a physics standpoint, are pretty unstable and hard to maintain). hard to see but it's the darker green ring (i told you these radars are terrible)
since then its core has been doing a bit of soul searching, pretty typical for a convection bomb like this. It looks like a new eyewall is getting its act together, but tough to tell from this radar. i think the rain on the radar is literally blocking some of the waves from getting out which is blocking the reflectivity
there's a radar in cuba that shows this too
so well on it's way to figuring itself out, once this eyewall contracts and closes it'll be RI time
it does look like helene took a quick crack at a pinhole last night before giving up (pinhole eyes, from a physics standpoint, are pretty unstable and hard to maintain). hard to see but it's the darker green ring (i told you these radars are terrible)
since then its core has been doing a bit of soul searching, pretty typical for a convection bomb like this. It looks like a new eyewall is getting its act together, but tough to tell from this radar. i think the rain on the radar is literally blocking some of the waves from getting out which is blocking the reflectivity
there's a radar in cuba that shows this too
so well on it's way to figuring itself out, once this eyewall contracts and closes it'll be RI time
The wind gusts look much more realistic. I see the Atlanta metro isn't above 50 either
Based on ?
RoddyPiper
Member
You know exactly what I meant
Some strong wording from Brad P
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I definitely would question the intensity but we are dealing with a unique situation and I'd rather take the precedence of Irma and how that interacted with the upper level features than with previous storms that were isolated inland racers. The pressure being so low too will enhance the winds.
HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 25
Location: 21.6°N 86.3°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 25
Location: 21.6°N 86.3°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
36H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W 110 KT 125 MPH Peak now up to 125 MPH.