Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[WEATHERBOYROY]

HWRF and HMON have it just offshore.....but it never makes it on land and maintains pressure.

Thank you for that clarification! Sure is deceiving on satellite. Guess it was a flare up.

It probably isn't aligned vertically. the satellite is seeing the cloud top and the radar is seeing the ground returns.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Pasta is locked in.

 

[Arcc]

Pasta is locked in.
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If that western creep continues, it’s gonna end up right over my head.

Wont be a bad here as to the east though.

 

[jaymackd3]

coming into NE quad

 

[NoSnowATL]

I am located in the red circle. Should be fun

 

[Nerman]

Atlanta is on the NW side of most of the model guidance. You know how this works, right? The NW side is the side you want to be on. I'm not saying that Atlanta wont have any issues but I dont think they are currently facing what East Georgia/NW SC/WNC are going to face. That isnt even to mention the orographic lift and enhancement of wind that'll come with terrain.

That doesn't jive with this though. It will be interesting to watch it unfold. I don't have a dog in the fight. I'm NE of Atl & my family is NW of Atl. We're just getting ready to hunker down.

 

[Georgiapeach]

I’m NW of Atl in the suburbs, earlier this morning the west track showed what looked like the eye going directly over me.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

That doesn't jive with this though. It will be interesting to watch it unfold. I don't have a dog in the fight. I'm NE of Atl & my family is NW of Atl. We're just getting ready to hunker down.
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Which one is the mean plot?

 

[RoddyPiper]

Pasta is locked in.
View attachment 151753

Almost completely out of the Big Bend area now, with numerous members riding the AL/GA border.....so much for nice weather around here. The SW portions of the mountains in NC is in for torrential rains with upslope enhancements, as well as a buzzcut on trees above 5,000 ft. Praying for you guys that live up that way....its going to be rough.

 

[RollTide18]

Pasta is locked in.
View attachment 151753

Dothan and Columbus could in for a rough time

 

[NoSnowJoe]

Spann is hanging with the east movement, putting most of the storm on the east side of the state.

 

[Snow_chaser]

Which makes sense since he’s in Alabama, I’d think there’d be no way it could go far enough west for middle of Alabama to be on east side

 

[SnowwxAtl]

A slight east jog from 06z . Still no big changes to the impact from Helene (and won't be). View attachment 1000009892.jpg

 

[Carolina Sky]

From Matthew East this morning.

As of 8am Wednesday, #Helene has that 'look' of a rapidly intensifying system. It is an upper end tropical storm as of the 8am advisory, and will soon become a hurricane.

 

[Arcc]

Spann is hanging with the east movement, putting most of the storm on the east side of the state.

That ain’t good for Alabama…

 

[BufordWX]

I was looking at the NWS forecast grid for my area and they are forecasting some massive gusts at the peak of the storm.

 

[NCSNOW]

Atlanta is on the NW side of most of the model guidance. You know how this works, right? The NW side is the side you want to be on. I'm not saying that Atlanta wont have any issues but I dont think they are currently facing what East Georgia/NW SC/WNC are going to face. That isnt even to mention the orographic lift and enhancement of wind that'll come with terrain.

Appreciate you understanding my post. Im not trying to down play, have a contest with heavy metro areas or any location. Im talking property damage, from MAJOR, MAJOR Flash Flooding. It will wash out roads and bridges galore in SW NC. Folks have no idea how much more destructive flash flooding is in that area. 95% folks live, towns located on valley floors at 1800- 2300 feet. But all around them are 4000- 6000ft Peaks. All that rain comes downhill into those valleys lightening fast , on top of what they are receiving straight from the sky. They will max out on total storm qpf,just from the metorology of upslope up the escarpment etc. My post has nothing to do with Money cost as a Metric. Its simply being logistically impaired well after the storm. Tree falls on a car, you file insurance,go get another, move on with life. But when your community looses roads, water treatment plants etc, the problem doesnt disappear the next day and affects everyone for weeks.

 

[Makeitsnow]

That doesn't jive with this though. It will be interesting to watch it unfold. I don't have a dog in the fight. I'm NE of Atl & my family is NW of Atl. We're just getting ready t

At this point it's all but certain imo areas east of a line from dawsonville to Lawrenceville to Forsyth will see the strongest impacts windwise...subject to any east shifts which doesn't look likely right now. The only real question in my mind is will Atlanta. Models show the worst of the wind to the right of the track but the northern eyewall will be no joke either. So only a slight west shift puts Atlanta innthe worst of it. I'm also concerned about local topographical effects..along the 85 corridor/northward due the unusual northward movement....as the windfield will be compressed between the low.center and the mountains. Some of the higher res models have hinted at this. For my local it looks rather grim...for example the wrf showing well over 100knot 850mb winds here is concerning to say the least. The only good news is this thing will be moving so fast the high winds will not last long.

 

[jrips27]

I was looking at the NWS forecast grid for my area and they are forecasting some massive gusts at the peak of the storm.

Sheesh. That’s so unprecedented. Looks like Atlanta is 50-60mph

 

[Snowflowxxl]

This was less than 4 years ago. And we also had it bad in 2017. I think some are getting a little carried away like this hasn’t happened lately