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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Interesting tidbit from the forecast discussion.

"Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position."
 
Sharp left loop now.
211729_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
Nam last few frames seems it was headed back towards the gulf.
 
GFS really escalating the intensity, maybe a more significant hurricane isn't unrealistic

Has a hurricane tomorrow evening!!! That is some strengthening lol
 
Looks like recon just found much stronger winds, this show may be getting on the road..

there it is

Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
 
Brent said:
Looks like recon just found much stronger winds, this show may be getting on the road..

there it is

Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Click to expand...

Deep convective burst with the upgrade.

rb_lalo-animatedharveynew.gif
 
meanwhile the GFS abandoned the Mexico thing and is looking more like the Euro going back to the Gulf next week

Hits Houston next Wednesday:rolleyes:
 
if this is a hurricane tomorrow oh boy

HWRF waits til Friday morning and still gets to 105 mph quickly before landfall directly at Corpus Christi
 
from what I can tell off the CIMMS site is that there is now a HUGE upper anticyclone overhead now. If that is truly the case, I would imagine we see the very nice convective burst continue
 
Just as we go through will all weak/strengthening tropical cyclones its going to find the deepest convection and migrate toward it. I don't know if its moving north, I doubt it, but its def. re-adjusting Northward right now into that super cold/deep storm burst.
 
Brent said:
definitely stronger on recon, maybe those winds earlier weren't a fluke
Click to expand...
the wind shift was almost a crazy jump north from last pass...I always find it cool to see how the center jumps around in these types of situations
 
72 to 96 hours the Euro is just sitting on top of Corpus Christi

120 hours back in the Gulf

144 hours blowing up hurricane off Galveston moving towards LA

goes inland next Wednesday morning in SW LA around 979 mb
 
Last edited:
We have a pretty good agreement on the "Loop" back in the gulf. I would advise anyone along the Texas and central gulf coast to be alert and ready for any impact. This could be a serious situation, especially the amount of rain its gonna cause. Euro also done the loop again, very persistent modeling.
 
Harvey down to 500 mb now. Extrapolated sea-level pressure: 500.2 mb. Wow!!!!
 
6z GFS just brought 936 cane into Tx and then just parked it there... epic flooding

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Looks like the GFS has trended to the NAM. The GFS has left the building.
 
0z Euro not even close wrt initializing Harvey's intensity, even thru 24 HR where it shows Harvey strengthening it's still weaker than it is now... I know it's a global model but Harvey is a large TC and the European has the highest resolution of any global model (9 km), if any global should initialize Harvey right it's the Euro...
ecmwf_mslp_gulf_5.png
 
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