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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Brent said:
this is gonna be one strange cone
Click to expand...

A live look at the NHC
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A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from
Port Mansfield to High Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north
of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.
 
11am adivsory has been issued, forecast cone hasn't been posted yet though.

EDIT: Forecast wind speeds
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/231448.shtml

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 92.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.3N 93.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.8N 93.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.2N 94.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.7N 96.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.0N 97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
 
Although not explicitly forecast
below, we are anticipating Harvey being a hurricane at landfall
after the 48 hour forecast point. This forecast agrees well with
the guidance, almost all of which shows a quickly intensifying
cyclone approaching the Texas coast.

The storm should slow
down markedly over southeast Texas, and there is considerable
uncertainty on exactly how fast Harvey moves out of that state ahead
of the next mid-latitude trough. For now the NHC forecast will just
drift Harvey generally toward the east at days 4 and 5, on
the slow side of the model consensus. Hopefully later G-IV flights
and special soundings over the southern United States will help
clarify the long range forecast.
 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 231448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from
Port Mansfield to High Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north
of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from
the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield and from north of
San Luis Pass to High Island.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of Mexico from Boca De Catan to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system for possible watches this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
a track toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected for the
next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching
the Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
could become a hurricane on Friday.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 
The 12z GFS continues the theme of rapid intensification of Harvey within about 12-18 hours of landfall in Texas, the pressure falls are quite dramatic and its pretty intriguing how Harvey continues intensifying a little after landfall. While Harvey is quite large and this argues for gradual intensification in general, localized frictional convergence as it nears the Texas coast, and its encroachment onto the entrance region of an upper level jet streak to it's north-northeast suggest a significant round of last minute RI before landfall is actually quite feasible...
gfs_uv250_us_11.png
 
Storm5 said:
I only posted about the CMC because there has been an obsession with it so far this season


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I have a feeling the CMC is going to be the one that misses this storm. If you want to talk obsession though look at all the all hail the Euro posts too. However, I think the GFS and Euro will be closer to the solution, and the Euro seems to have brought the idea up and the others have caught on.
 
I wouldn't wish that rain to occur that fast in a flat area to anyone, even if they had an exceptional drought. That would be a nightmare for a very populated part of the state, not to mention it would last for over a week.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I swear the 12Z is exactly like the 18Z yesterday. Did it just recycle data by accident or was that just anothet run??? :confused: It also means no rain for us over here.
Click to expand...

Huh ??? You would be on SE side . You would get rain and storms . Wouldn't be flooding rains but you would still get rain


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Storm5 said:
Huh ??? You would be on SE side . You would get rain and storms . Wouldn't be flooding rains but you would still get rain


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Click to expand...
I was talking about most of us here, and it turns out that it was much wetter than 18Z in the end. It looked much like 18Z up until the point in Arkansas.
 
Harvey is making dramatic improvements. The ULL to the north is filling fast with the big anticyclone taking over. Outflow is dramatically improving on the western side as shear lessens. Big convective burst close to the COC. To be honest this may be the best it has ever looked.

Now systems in this area can fool you with how it looks via satellite, so we need recon to confirm. That said Harvey looks much better today than I expected.
 
Allison's max rainfall was a mere 37 inches :confused:

and yes I would agree Harvey looks much better than I expected
 
ForsythSnow said:
That could avoid a lot of catastrophic flooding here, but for those who want a big rain event here, that would only ruin things if it went left instead of right. Interesting at how the GEFS is split on its members.

So far, the Euro is stronger than last run.
Click to expand...

There are some that take a hard left after landfall and wash out in Mexico
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