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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

@philklotzbach 1m1 minute ago More #Harvey has formed in the tropical Atlantic - the 8th named storm of 2017. The only other seasons with >=8 NS by 8/17 are 1936, 2005 & 2012
 
One this to watch is if the shear causes the centers to decouple or keeps them from stacking. We all have seen it many times where it happens in this fast flow and area. If it does, it could be game over.
 
Arcc said:
One this to watch is if the shear causes the centers to decouple or keeps them from stacking. We all have seen it many times where it happens in this fast flow and area. If it does, it could be game over.
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Shear is not a problem at this point.
 
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Hmmm, the King takes Harvey much further north into the GOM on a NNW heading toward trouble as of 192 hours!

Edit: It now looks like it is getting blocked and is making a left turn toward TX.
 
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Sharing Alan Huffman's map and still looks like most guidance takes it into Mexico but Northern parts and another shift like that paging Brent
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NCSNOW said:
I can see what the Euro is showing. Stronger Harvey gets, hes gonna get tugged easier , feel trough next week.
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Yeah, it also hinges on the evolution of the ULL just south of Florida, if this is slower and phases with a shortwave currently over the Gulf of Alaska (which eventually dives into the Great Lakes states later next week) then that will open the door for Harvey to gain some latitude in the western Gulf of Mexico if it's in the vicinity and/or avoids interaction w/ Honduras and Nicaragua...
IHG13-11152017230.jpg
 
I wouldn't expect much intensification over the next 48 hours. That northerly shear is cranking at around 20kt
 
Storm5 said:
I wouldn't expect much intensification over the next 48 hours. That northerly shear is cranking at around 20kt
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yeah if you look at the radar recording (link I shared above) you can see the upper level rotation come across the southern islands and then the last couple of frames the llc NE of that, so it's not a stacked system due to that shear you mention
 
ForsythSnow said:
BTW if anyone noticed, recon is flying around in Harvey again.
recon_AF302-0209A-HARVEY.png
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They seem to be finding 50 mph surface winds as well. Looking at the raw data, I saw it appears their data got messed up at one point as it showed an obviously flagged 155 knot winds speed :p. How can that even mess up that badly? Just updated, and max seems to be 57 mph?
 
GFS actually has Harvey alive this run(I know, shocker)... actually gets down to the 990s in the BOC and landfalls near Tampico much like Franklin. Not much to see before Belize
 
Brent said:
2hnp2d3.png
lot of northward motion in the Gulf. Would probably have a lot of time too assuming it exists.
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Not wishcasting, but the path has gone pretty far north since yesterday. Wouldn't be surprise if this tended north even more within the next couple of days.
 
I do think it'll probably die in the next day or two then regenerate approaching Honduras/Belize
 
The forecast for Harvey gets very tricky after day 3... There's definitely going to be a window for this system to gain an appreciable amount of latitude in the Gulf around day 6-7 before the subtropical ridge briefly attempts rebuilds in around day 8-9, this window will be much larger than it was for Franklin... Generally speaking the stronger Harvey becomes, the more latitude it's liable to gain in the long run and thus the more time it will have to intensify over water, & so on/so forth. Still too early to say what impact, if any Harvey may have on the US, and we'll likely know more after this weekend once it gets in the vicinity of Nicaragua/Honduras and beyond the central Caribbean graveyard, but interests in the Gulf of Mexico and Central America should keep a close eye on this over the coming days. It's entirely possible Harvey disintegrates into a tropical wave axis within the next 48 hours and a new circulation forms once it passes the longitude of Jamaica, which could throw a large curve ball into nwp forecasts and its long term future...
ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_watl_7.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The forecast for Harvey gets very tricky after day 3... There's definitely going to be a window for this system to gain an appreciable amount of latitude in the Gulf around day 6-7 before the subtropical ridge briefly attempts rebuilds in around day 8-9, this window will be much larger than it was for Franklin... Generally speaking the stronger Harvey becomes, the more latitude it's liable to gain in the long run and thus the more time it will have to intensify over water, & so on/so forth. Still too early to say what impact, if any Harvey may have on the US, and we'll likely know more after this weekend once it gets in the vicinity of Nicaragua/Honduras and beyond the central Caribbean graveyard, but interests in the Gulf of Mexico and Central America should keep a close eye on this over the coming days. It's entirely possible Harvey disintegrates into a tropical wave axis within the next 48 hours and a new circulation forms once it passes the longitude of Jamaica, which could throw a large curve ball into nwp forecasts and its long term future...
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Agree there too.
 
it is good to see the GFS finally have a storm :eek: I was getting concerned there :p

this is the strongest run I've seen before Belize

and it's north closer to Texas this run... pretty weak though

Meanwhile the CMC has a hurricane into Brownsville

the UKMET also shifted north
 
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Cmc has same landfall as gfs in texas. I bet future runs will indeed be further north.
 
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