• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

ForsythSnow said:
Looking at the 500 levels, I think this storm is going to hit land. There is no trough sweeping it away, so unfortunately we could see a big threat. All assuming it forms.
Click to expand...

There is a huge opening for a stronger storm to stay offshore or become a fish as it will turn poleward with nothing to force it west .
e176437b931143943149a1d1e8206ef1.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
EPS much further south than the GEFS suite with 91L, hinting at a possible long tracked Caribbean Cruiser and/or interaction with the Greater Antilles...
Screen Shot 2017-08-13 at 1.10.20 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS much further south than the GEFS suite with 91L, hinting at a possible long tracked Caribbean Cruiser and/or interaction with the Greater Antilles...
View attachment 835
Click to expand...
That map doesn't look good at all. I would put more stock into the EPS at this range than the GEFS. If this thing gets shredded like the rest before it even gets to the Antilles then it will end up like the others, but isn't the environment better for development now?
 
ForsythSnow said:
That map doesn't look good at all. I would put more stock into the EPS at this range than the GEFS. If this thing gets shredded like the rest before it even gets to the Antilles then it will end up like the others, but isn't the environment better for development now?
Click to expand...

yeah the environment looks better than it did for 99L. 91L has a 1.5-2 week climatological advantage, passage of a strong(er) CCKW in the eastern Atlantic (which makes sense given the larger-scale MJO envelope has moved further east from the eastern Pacific to over and just beyond the tropical Atlantic), MJO juxtaposition is more conducive, and this system has a very large moisture envelope with little-no SAL to its north & west.
 
Last 4 runs of the european model valid for 12z August 13, including today's 12z initialization. No doubt the model is becoming more impressed with 91L and the monsoon trough over the eastern Atlantic with time, we'll see if this carries over into latter portions of this run or subsequent runs...
Unknown.gif
 
Oh man this Euro run is going nuts... 91L is well to the north & east of the Lesser Antilles, a broad low currently in the monsoon trough develops into a hurricane as it passes the antilles (hence nullifying the canonical John Hope Rule wrt the graveyard) and there's another system following hot on its heels...
ecmwf_mslpa_atltropics_7.png
 
The eastern MDR turns into a TC conveyor belt in the eastern Atlantic, just about every wave that emerges for the next week-10 days after 91L attempts to develop...
ecmwf_uv850_vort_atltropics_9.png
 
91L again has a block up top this run of the Euro . Should continue a NW path
c55571ed746b2461745118418b0d7793.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
deltadog03 said:
That’s a lot of low pressure aground. We have a MJO pulse coming across?
Click to expand...

Yeah we have a pretty substantial MJO-CCKW couplet pushing across the Atlantic right now, traditionally, tropical cyclone genesis is favored most following the passage of the most favorable upper level forcing... This CCKW's filtered VP200 anomalies are about -3.0 sigma over South America, yeah this means business...
twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
 
The EPS is pretty enthused about 91L's prospects for TCG in the eastern MDR, a lot of members showing development before reaching the Antilles, and a substantial number of members are also picking up on at least 2 other disturbances behind 91L...
eps_slp_lows_watl_22.png


eps_slp_lows_mdr_28.png

eps_slp_lows_mdr_38.png
 
To me this early out, if the eps likes mexico that just tells me the GOM will be a great threat only to go north.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top