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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

NOAA upped their forecast to 14-19 and 2-5 majors, citing weakening El Niño and very warm waters in the Atlantic, and said it could be an extremely active season! Does JB work for them?? Apparently, these numbers are up a good bit from original forecast. Think this was updated Aug 10
 
Tarheel1 said:
NOAA upped their forecast to 14-19 and 2-5 majors, citing weakening El Niño and very warm waters in the Atlantic, and said it could be an extremely active season! Does JB work for them?? Apparently, these numbers are up a good bit from original forecast. Think this was updated Aug 10
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How many hurricanes? previously, it was 11-17 storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2 - 4 majors.
 
No GFS, you are the 18Z, you won't come true. The path from Central Florida on is close to Matthew's from last year.
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Webberweather53 said:
12z UKMET agrees w/ the European in developing 2 separate entities from the monsoon trough in the eastern Atlantic and keys in on the system in front of 91L...
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Yep this seems to be the reason the euro goes south versus the gfs

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Hahah holy hell the 18z gefs . Also note the GEFS is a lot faster vs the gfs OP more in line with the euro speed
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Storm5 said:
Hahah holy hell the 18z gefs . Also note the GEFS is a lot faster vs the gfs OP more in line with the euro speed
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We've seen these threats from the GEFS a number of times this before for other waves and there still is no TC from 91L, but I have a feeling this time is different based on more model consensus and it being into the start of prime time when the US has been hit hard and E US higher pressure vs troughiness there earlier. Keep a watchful eye on this one.
 
I do not want a major hurricane to hit anyone at all. I know the hype is extreme in our world but dangerous lol. Is always a good thing to be prepare for any storms that comes through. Me personally, im ready to track my winterstorms and have my late night pop corn and coffee drinking. Until then lets track hurricanes.
 
Well gfs doing its stupid stunt now, weakening 91L. I promise i really hate that model.
 
Euro has a hurricane in the Gulf at day 9-10 ending just north of Cancun at 240 hours from the wave in front of 91L(which as of now the NHC thinks will be one area)

After passing over Hispanola and near the length of Cuba

Also has Hurricane Irma(?) SE of Bermuda at the same time
 
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So the euro takes 91l the length of Cuba and still spits out a Hurricane by day 10??? Lol
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We need to keep in mind the euro still not developing 91L, the system it shows entering the Lesser Antilles several days from now is in association w/ a broad low in the monsoon trough to the west of and completely separate from 91L. While the large scale pattern is very conducive to TCG in the eastern Atlantic, relatively smaller details on which system (or systems) consolidate and become tropical cyclones matter in the long run for the US.
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12z gefs takes 91L ( or whatever ) into the gulf and starts cranking the wave behind it
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Saw this posted on FB . Definitely not the best looking conditions ahead
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I just can't with these models anymore if we're not gonna have hurricanes can we just move on to winters disappointments

Active season where are you lol
 
Brent said:
I just can't with these models anymore if we're not gonna have hurricanes can we just move on to winters disappointments

Active season where are you lol
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It's been active so far , we will run out of luck at some point


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Yeah I would not get enthralled about particular nwp solutions or runs at this point until this has or is very close to developing... We're very likely going to see something form and come out of the eastern mdr within the next week whether it's 91L or the next wave behind it, the large scale environment is very conducive to TCG even east of the lesser Antilles
 
Harvey is such a classic southern redneck name. If ever a named storm was destined for the halls of southern weather folklore, this is the one. We had a neighbor when I was younger named Harvey who use to bring us squirrel and rabbit after he cooked it (delicious) and sons little league coach a few years back named Harvey (mechanic). Anyway my 2 cents for the conversation.
 
Well can t post direct but from looking this morning, it really ramps up and is progged to be near Lesser Antillies in 72 hrs...
 
Trying to survive the trip through the graveyard and staying well south so far on GFS
 
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