Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

[$alt]

Crazy to see winds at 11kts in the eye in the newest dropsonde

 

[ForsythSnow]

Crazy to see winds at 11kts in the eye in the newest dropsonde

That doesn't sound normal.

This thing definitely may actually be going the way of the HMON, so let's see what recon finds the next few hours. The only thing for certain is that South Texas is going to be devastated by this, and I expect name retirement.

 

[ncskywarn]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252011
NOAA2 1809A HARVEY HDOB 37 20170825
200200 2741N 09618W 7437 02389 9778 +155 +131 117109 110 070 007 00
200230 2739N 09619W 7429 02381 9756 +153 +141 116113 117 073 009 00
200300 2737N 09620W 7401 02382 9719 +156 +133 112117 119 076 009 00
200330 2736N 09620W 7370 02381 9690 +144 +139 113121 122 087 011 00
200400 2734N 09621W 7329 02390 9637 +151 +147 116121 122 090 011 00
200430 2732N 09622W 7278 02401 9577 +154 +144 118113 121 097 009 00
200500 2731N 09623W 7234 02408 9522 +161 +152 122090 098 096 008 00
200530 2729N 09623W 7230 02387 9487 +169 +145 124072 078 085 004 00
200600 2727N 09624W 7216 02381 9457 +173 +158 129056 063 060 004 00
200630 2725N 09624W 7194 02389 9442 +169 +154 141042 043 054 001 03
200700 2724N 09623W 7156 02432 9437 +171 +148 162040 043 /// /// 03
200730 2724N 09621W 7179 02423 9444 +183 +154 171056 065 048 003 00
200800 2724N 09619W 7210 02416 9467 +193 +147 175074 077 064 004 00
200830 2724N 09617W 7244 02413 9518 +182 +143 180099 109 085 003 00
200900 2724N 09615W 7265 02439 9569 +192 +126 181122 124 091 001 00
200930 2724N 09613W 7304 02445 9627 +192 +116 176115 118 089 001 00
201000 2724N 09611W 7356 02423 9682 +177 +131 174112 112 087 002 00
201030 2724N 09609W 7389 02414 9722 +172 +137 174109 111 081 003 00
201100 2724N 09607W 7429 02391 9763 +158 +138 175103 104 077 005 00
201130 2724N 09605W 7448 02397 9794 +154 +142 176098 100 074 007 00

Supports 130 MPH at the surface.

 

[Arcc]

That doesn't sound normal.

This thing definitely may actually be going the way of the HMON, so let's see what recon finds the next few hours. The only thing for certain is that South Texas is going to be devastated by this, and I expect name retirement.

I don't think we get that far based on IR and structure, but a landfall intensity of 140mph is very reasonable.

 

[Brent]

Yep this is making a run at Cat 4

Pretty unbelievable turn of events 2 days ago it was a piddly depression

 

[ForsythSnow]

I don't think we get that far based on IR and structure, but a landfall intensity of 140mph is very reasonable.

Pressurewise, no, but windwise, yes. 140 to 145 was what the HMON had, the HWRF was a weak cat 4.

 

[Arcc]

Pressurewise, no, but windwise, yes. 140 to 145 was what the HMON had, the HWRF was a weak cat 4.

Wow, then I stand corrected, I just remembered the pressure part. In that case it may nail this.

 

[pcbjr]

Do not leave this site and go elsewhere ... ... but if you have split screen capacity and internet TV access, keep this site open and readable and on the other side of the screen stream TWC (TV) - awesome and already frightening footage coming in right now ...

 

[ncskywarn]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252031
NOAA2 1809A HARVEY HDOB 39 20170825
202200 2738N 09553W 7530 02392 9915 +143 +139 151083 084 050 006 00
202230 2737N 09556W 7512 02410 9906 +143 +142 152083 084 053 006 00
202300 2737N 09558W 7481 02433 9886 +145 //// 149079 081 056 015 01
202330 2737N 09601W 7475 02424 9872 +146 +144 151089 090 059 010 00
202400 2736N 09603W 7499 02384 9854 +153 +142 148092 094 060 010 00
202430 2736N 09606W 7467 02407 9840 +150 +136 147095 098 065 009 00
202500 2736N 09608W 7459 02394 9811 +154 +136 145103 104 070 004 00
202530 2735N 09611W 7449 02381 9781 +154 +143 143109 111 074 005 00
202600 2735N 09613W 7429 02369 9739 +160 +141 144114 115 080 004 00
202630 2734N 09616W 7390 02373 9700 +153 +148 141118 120 086 006 00
202700 2734N 09618W 7342 02381 9641 +154 +144 136126 128 092 006 00
202730 2734N 09622W 7321 02353 9576 +164 +151 129122 128 096 006 03
202800 2735N 09625W 7250 02398 9533 +160 +157 119103 111 095 003 00
202830 2734N 09627W 7213 02410 9493 +163 +153 111080 088 095 003 03
202900 2732N 09628W 7245 02344 9454 +172 +153 110060 069 050 002 03
202930 2730N 09629W 7221 02354 9434 +174 +171 120042 045 038 005 00
203000 2728N 09629W 7231 02336 9427 +176 +160 140026 030 024 004 00
203030 2726N 09628W 7228 02344 9425 +177 +164 182019 021 012 003 00
203100 2724N 09629W 7234 02335 9428 +184 +142 228020 021 012 003 03
203130 2723N 09631W 7204 02384 9437 +179 +152 261027 031 /// /// 03

Well This should just about seal it and make it a Cat 4 at the 5PM update.
supports 115K at the surface 130-135 MPH.

 

[Arcc]

Eye becoming better defined and sharper with each new IR image.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Both planes in the eye right now.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Oh my. Look at what is above the surface, plus the surface?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Max flight level winds: 150 MPH. If we are seeing these mix down... That won't end well. That would also mean congrats HMON. It hasn't done that bad this year.

 

[Brent]

Can't believe the more hyped up models are actually gonna verify

 

[pcbjr]

Oh my. Look at what is above the surface, plus the surface?

FS,
You know I love weather, but some things I have not learned well (as all collectively chorus "Obviously," which I hear all the way down here ... LOL), and reading a dropsonde graph is one of them ... can you give a 30 second tutorial on the graph?
Thanks!
Phil

 

[Storm5]

Enormous spread with the speed and track of Harvey on the 12z EPS. You can clearly see the members that have the trough picking Harvey up and clearly see the ones that leave him behind

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Arcc]

Tops continue to cool on IR. Holy cow!

 

[$alt]

The mean wind in the lower levels indicate a category 4 storm. my, oh. my.

 

[ForsythSnow]

FS,
You know I love weather, but some things I have not learned well (as all chorus "Obviously," which I hear all the way down here ... LOL), and reading a dropsonde graph is one of them ... can you give a 30 second tutorial on the graph?
Thanks!
Phil

If I am reading it correctly, the main chart is like a Skew T chart. It shows wind direction and temp and humidity. The table on the right is the drop info from the dropsonde. As it drops, it collects the data and reports it back. Once the drop hits the water, it stops reading. The lowest part on the table represents the surface, I believe. The highest represents the initial drop altitude. Anything in between is just the area before the surface. If you go back and read older ones form today, you will see those winds were higher or not yet strong enough. Now we are seeing a ramp up, and that was taken from the SE eyewall.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Just shy of Cat 4 in the latest update
4:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 25
Location: 27.5°N 96.5°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph