Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Recon found winds of 127 knots at 937mb in the eyewall and given the pressure surface at sea level of this dropsonde was around 965mb those winds are only 250 meters or so above the surface...pretty damn impressive
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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
127 knots is insane. That is practically a strong 4 wind strength. If those mix down, we could see a big jump. If not, then we should see a 3 soon at least.
What data/site are you using?
Cary_Snow95
Member
12z GFS has the second LF much further west than 6z
ForsythSnow
Moderator
They also had 130 mph at the 960 mb level, which is even closer.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I believe he is using tropical tidbits. Here is the drop data.
Storm5
Member
That SE ridge could screw those of us wanting rain out of this
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000
URNT15 KNHC 251559
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 56 20170825
155000 2800N 09423W 5654 04874 0037 +005 -041 152042 043 035 001 03
155030 2800N 09421W 5434 05190 0236 -004 -073 152045 046 035 001 03
155100 2801N 09420W 5234 05493 0258 -022 -078 148046 046 029 001 00
155130 2803N 09419W 5057 05764 0275 -041 -077 152045 046 030 001 00
155200 2805N 09418W 4922 05977 0289 -054 -090 162049 053 028 001 00
155230 2807N 09417W 4780 06205 0303 -062 -084 155050 053 033 001 00
155300 2809N 09416W 4634 06450 0321 -076 -085 154048 050 032 006 03
155330 2810N 09414W 4478 06720 0340 -088 -090 145045 047 033 012 00
155400 2811N 09412W 4453 06765 0346 -090 -092 148045 048 035 002 00
155430 2812N 09409W 4461 06751 0346 -094 -118 149041 043 033 002 00
155500 2813N 09407W 4461 06754 0347 -100 -171 149041 041 030 001 00
155530 2815N 09404W 4464 06748 0348 -098 -175 153040 041 031 000 00
155600 2816N 09402W 4463 06751 0349 -099 -179 152039 040 031 000 00
155630 2817N 09359W 4464 06750 0352 -094 -172 154039 039 031 001 00
155700 2818N 09356W 4463 06762 0360 -099 -161 156038 039 033 001 00
155730 2819N 09353W 4463 06762 0361 -099 -156 160038 039 033 001 00
155800 2821N 09351W 4466 06757 0361 -101 -159 163039 039 032 002 00
155830 2822N 09348W 4464 06761 0362 -101 -155 162038 040 032 001 03
155900 2823N 09345W 4463 06764 0362 -102 -152 162036 037 032 000 00
155930 2825N 09342W 4462 06767 0363 -104 -138 162037 038 032 000 00
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 251559
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 56 20170825
155000 2800N 09423W 5654 04874 0037 +005 -041 152042 043 035 001 03
155030 2800N 09421W 5434 05190 0236 -004 -073 152045 046 035 001 03
155100 2801N 09420W 5234 05493 0258 -022 -078 148046 046 029 001 00
155130 2803N 09419W 5057 05764 0275 -041 -077 152045 046 030 001 00
155200 2805N 09418W 4922 05977 0289 -054 -090 162049 053 028 001 00
155230 2807N 09417W 4780 06205 0303 -062 -084 155050 053 033 001 00
155300 2809N 09416W 4634 06450 0321 -076 -085 154048 050 032 006 03
155330 2810N 09414W 4478 06720 0340 -088 -090 145045 047 033 012 00
155400 2811N 09412W 4453 06765 0346 -090 -092 148045 048 035 002 00
155430 2812N 09409W 4461 06751 0346 -094 -118 149041 043 033 002 00
155500 2813N 09407W 4461 06754 0347 -100 -171 149041 041 030 001 00
155530 2815N 09404W 4464 06748 0348 -098 -175 153040 041 031 000 00
155600 2816N 09402W 4463 06751 0349 -099 -179 152039 040 031 000 00
155630 2817N 09359W 4464 06750 0352 -094 -172 154039 039 031 001 00
155700 2818N 09356W 4463 06762 0360 -099 -161 156038 039 033 001 00
155730 2819N 09353W 4463 06762 0361 -099 -156 160038 039 033 001 00
155800 2821N 09351W 4466 06757 0361 -101 -159 163039 039 032 002 00
155830 2822N 09348W 4464 06761 0362 -101 -155 162038 040 032 001 03
155900 2823N 09345W 4463 06764 0362 -102 -152 162036 037 032 000 00
155930 2825N 09342W 4462 06767 0363 -104 -138 162037 038 032 000 00
$$
;
Wow to all of the above! I just got a sick feeling in my gut for my niece and her family just outside San Antonio.... prayers for all in the path.
For some reason the recon page on NHC is not updating.
Here's the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml
Here's the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml
Storm5
Member
Gfs has Harvey in south Texas NEXT FRIDAY
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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 15:35Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 35
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 26.9N 95.9W
Location: 109 statute miles (176 km) to the ESE (122°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 ( About )
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -280m (-919 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
969mb (28.62 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.2°C (77°F) 90° (from the E) 93 knots (107 mph)
925mb 410m (1,345 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 115° (from the ESE) 123 knots (142 mph)
850mb 1,151m (3,776 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.3°C (69°F) 130° (from the SE) 108 knots (124 mph)
700mb 2,819m (9,249 ft) 13.8°C (56.8°F) 13.6°C (56°F) 155° (from the SSE) 99 knots (114 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:19Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.
Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.86N 95.87W
- Time: 15:19:16Z
Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.95N 95.98W
- Time: 15:23:43Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 116 knots (133 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 106 knots (122 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 968mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 110 knots (127 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 33304
Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
969mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.2°C (77°F)
850mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.3°C (69°F)
707mb 15.0°C (59.0°F) 14.6°C (58°F)
696mb 13.0°C (55.4°F) 13.0°C (55°F)
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
969mb (Surface) 90° (from the E) 93 knots (107 mph)
966mb 95° (from the E) 92 knots (106 mph)
960mb 100° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
953mb 105° (from the ESE) 117 knots (135 mph)
946mb 110° (from the ESE) 114 knots (131 mph)
941mb 110° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)
937mb 115° (from the ESE) 127 knots (146 mph)
924mb 115° (from the ESE) 122 knots (140 mph)
918mb 120° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
908mb 125° (from the SE) 111 knots (128 mph)
901mb 120° (from the ESE) 126 knots (145 mph)
896mb 125° (from the SE) 119 knots (137 mph)
889mb 130° (from the SE) 121 knots (139 mph)
875mb 135° (from the SE) 108 knots (124 mph)
850mb 130° (from the SE) 108 knots (124 mph)
696mb 155° (from the SSE) 98 knots (113 mph)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 15:35Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 35
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 26.9N 95.9W
Location: 109 statute miles (176 km) to the ESE (122°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 ( About )
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -280m (-919 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
969mb (28.62 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.2°C (77°F) 90° (from the E) 93 knots (107 mph)
925mb 410m (1,345 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 115° (from the ESE) 123 knots (142 mph)
850mb 1,151m (3,776 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.3°C (69°F) 130° (from the SE) 108 knots (124 mph)
700mb 2,819m (9,249 ft) 13.8°C (56.8°F) 13.6°C (56°F) 155° (from the SSE) 99 knots (114 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:19Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.
Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.86N 95.87W
- Time: 15:19:16Z
Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 26.95N 95.98W
- Time: 15:23:43Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 116 knots (133 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 106 knots (122 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 968mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 110 knots (127 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 33304
Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
969mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.2°C (77°F)
850mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.3°C (69°F)
707mb 15.0°C (59.0°F) 14.6°C (58°F)
696mb 13.0°C (55.4°F) 13.0°C (55°F)
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
969mb (Surface) 90° (from the E) 93 knots (107 mph)
966mb 95° (from the E) 92 knots (106 mph)
960mb 100° (from the E) 116 knots (133 mph)
953mb 105° (from the ESE) 117 knots (135 mph)
946mb 110° (from the ESE) 114 knots (131 mph)
941mb 110° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)
937mb 115° (from the ESE) 127 knots (146 mph)
924mb 115° (from the ESE) 122 knots (140 mph)
918mb 120° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
908mb 125° (from the SE) 111 knots (128 mph)
901mb 120° (from the ESE) 126 knots (145 mph)
896mb 125° (from the SE) 119 knots (137 mph)
889mb 130° (from the SE) 121 knots (139 mph)
875mb 135° (from the SE) 108 knots (124 mph)
850mb 130° (from the SE) 108 knots (124 mph)
696mb 155° (from the SSE) 98 knots (113 mph)
Storm5
Member
Meanwhile the CMc has it in the gulf day 5 heading Ne
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Storm5
Member
The trough on the CMc is more pronounced and is trying to pull it Ne
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^^Let's see what the Euro shows track wise as Shawn pointed out yesterday (and before) the Euro tends to handle H5 better
000
URNT15 KWBC 251611
NOAA2 1809A HARVEY HDOB 13 20170825
160200 2817N 09331W 6909 03265 0085 +099 +082 150041 041 027 001 00
160230 2818N 09333W 6914 03264 0084 +101 +079 149041 041 025 001 00
160300 2819N 09336W 6916 03261 0087 +099 +080 148041 041 027 001 00
160330 2820N 09338W 6915 03262 0086 +100 +078 146040 040 027 001 00
160400 2821N 09341W 6913 03263 0082 +103 +081 148040 040 024 002 00
160430 2822N 09343W 6917 03260 0082 +103 +079 148040 040 024 001 00
160500 2823N 09345W 6922 03249 0081 +101 +087 146039 040 025 000 00
160530 2824N 09348W 6937 03232 0081 +101 +089 143040 041 026 001 00
160600 2825N 09350W 6923 03247 0078 +101 +094 143040 040 026 001 00
160630 2826N 09353W 6937 03233 0079 +101 +094 145042 042 026 002 00
160700 2826N 09356W 6937 03231 0077 +101 +092 146040 041 026 001 00
160730 2827N 09358W 6935 03234 0071 +108 +082 146040 041 027 001 00
160800 2828N 09401W 6933 03236 0073 +106 +072 147040 041 027 001 00
160830 2828N 09403W 6930 03237 0077 +103 +074 146041 042 028 001 00
160900 2829N 09406W 6932 03235 0076 +104 +067 145042 043 031 001 00
160930 2829N 09408W 6930 03236 0069 +109 +060 145043 043 030 001 00
161000 2830N 09411W 6931 03235 0068 +111 +059 145042 043 032 001 00
161030 2830N 09414W 6931 03236 0069 +110 +055 144043 043 031 001 00
161100 2831N 09416W 6931 03235 0068 +111 +048 143041 042 033 000 00
161130 2831N 09419W 6931 03234 0065 +114 +047 142039 039 033 001 00
URNT15 KWBC 251611
NOAA2 1809A HARVEY HDOB 13 20170825
160200 2817N 09331W 6909 03265 0085 +099 +082 150041 041 027 001 00
160230 2818N 09333W 6914 03264 0084 +101 +079 149041 041 025 001 00
160300 2819N 09336W 6916 03261 0087 +099 +080 148041 041 027 001 00
160330 2820N 09338W 6915 03262 0086 +100 +078 146040 040 027 001 00
160400 2821N 09341W 6913 03263 0082 +103 +081 148040 040 024 002 00
160430 2822N 09343W 6917 03260 0082 +103 +079 148040 040 024 001 00
160500 2823N 09345W 6922 03249 0081 +101 +087 146039 040 025 000 00
160530 2824N 09348W 6937 03232 0081 +101 +089 143040 041 026 001 00
160600 2825N 09350W 6923 03247 0078 +101 +094 143040 040 026 001 00
160630 2826N 09353W 6937 03233 0079 +101 +094 145042 042 026 002 00
160700 2826N 09356W 6937 03231 0077 +101 +092 146040 041 026 001 00
160730 2827N 09358W 6935 03234 0071 +108 +082 146040 041 027 001 00
160800 2828N 09401W 6933 03236 0073 +106 +072 147040 041 027 001 00
160830 2828N 09403W 6930 03237 0077 +103 +074 146041 042 028 001 00
160900 2829N 09406W 6932 03235 0076 +104 +067 145042 043 031 001 00
160930 2829N 09408W 6930 03236 0069 +109 +060 145043 043 030 001 00
161000 2830N 09411W 6931 03235 0068 +111 +059 145042 043 032 001 00
161030 2830N 09414W 6931 03236 0069 +110 +055 144043 043 031 001 00
161100 2831N 09416W 6931 03235 0068 +111 +048 143041 042 033 000 00
161130 2831N 09419W 6931 03234 0065 +114 +047 142039 039 033 001 00
Good lord y'all.... look at that saw blade
Brent
Member
If this doesn't break the major streak I don't think we ever will
Looks like it's going to make landfall soon.