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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Maybe it’s finally starting to pivot west and south now?
 
Rain Cold said:
Maybe it’s finally starting to pivot west and south now?
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HRRR has Flo gaining latitude through the afternoon so that super band may push north a little. Looks like we will be right on the edge. Going to be out and about today, be nice to get a lull in precip.

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Not doing a thing here. Not even raining. Hope I am far enough north to miss the heavy stuff today.
 
Rain Cold said:
The only qpf model that looks remotely right to me is the RGEM.
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The RGEM and it’s higher resolution counterpart the HRDPS have done exceptionally well with the banding and amounts so far. If they’re remotely close then it’s going to get worse.
Here’s what the 06z HRDPS shows for the next 48 hours.
1DA2A55B-2A40-4B5D-838E-60AF216AB0F0.png
Here’s the 06z RGEM
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Another aspect of this slow motion natural disaster to consider is overflow river flooding. Surface runoff from rains in the higher elevations will cause a number of rivers in the Carolinas to crest to record heights during the coming week, resulting in even more catastrophic flooding.
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snowlover91 said:
The RGEM and it’s higher resolution counterpart the HRDPS have done exceptionally well with the banding and amounts so far. If they’re remotely close then it’s going to get worse.
Here’s what the 06z HRDPS shows for the next 48 hours.
View attachment 6417
Here’s the 06z RGEM
View attachment 6418
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I’m glad you mentioned the HRSPS. As silly as it sounds, I’ve been watching that model for the last few days, and it seems to have done quite well. I meant to say something about it the other day, but I forgot. I’ve been impressed with it with this storm.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Try living in ATL & watching this when you haven’t gotten a drop of rain in 12 d ays


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Totally new here but the reason I watch these storms is because my daughter used to live in Florida and now lives in Atlanta. Cannot tell you how glad I am to hear she is not in the midst of a hurricane! Last year they decided to "ride out" Irma. Now she gets to sit and worry about us! And sitting here just below Charlotte so far we have wind and about .50" of rain. Power flickered off last night but came back on.
 
Rain Cold said:
I’m glad you mentioned the HRSPS. As silly as it sounds, I’ve been watching that model for the last few days, and it seems to have done quite well. I meant to say something about it the other day, but I forgot. I’ve been impressed with it with this storm.
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Yeah the HRSPS has been very good and right now it’s showing a brief lull before the fire hose comes back. I wish it showed the rest of the country.


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How likely is it that the upper winds will work down to the surface as the Euro is showing? I didn't find any other models that were showing 50-70 mph winds at the surface in the western half of NC.
TW
 
It does well in winter quite often as well. If correct as BHS mentioned, after a lull you guys will be under the gun again, heck even gets decent amounts up here. Wish we could see how it's handling Florence's movement. Is it turning north sooner or just showing a much more expansive rain shield
Rain Cold said:
I’m glad you mentioned the HRSPS. As silly as it sounds, I’ve been watching that model for the last few days, and it seems to have done quite well. I meant to say something about it the other day, but I forgot. I’ve been impressed with it with this storm.
Click to expand...

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metwannabe said:
It does well in winter quite often as well. If correct as BHS mentioned, after a lull you guys will be under the gun again, heck even gets decent amounts up here. Wish we could see how it's handling Florence's movement. Is it turning north sooner or just showing a much more expansive rain shield

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Click to expand...
Yeah, they need a SE view on that thing!
 
metwannabe said:
It does well in winter quite often as well. If correct as BHS mentioned, after a lull you guys will be under the gun again, heck even gets decent amounts up here. Wish we could see how it's handling Florence's movement. Is it turning north sooner or just showing a much more expansive rain shield

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Click to expand...

I’m thinking it’s just an expanding rain shield as the flow becomes more from the south.


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