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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

3k NAM also slight north shift, I think it's anyone's guess where that death band will finally setup, 25-50 huge difference especially for Shane, RC and the triangle peeps

edit: actually maybe shift north for the eastern edge but for Cen NC just narrows the band and slight south, who knows.... I need to stop and just watch or better yet I'll go outside, sun shining here
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Rain Cold said:
Yeah. The 3k NAM has it well south at hour 1. Does it have the right coordinates in its code?
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Yeah man not sure. The one thing I did notice is they both want to bring an enhanced area of fgen through our area late today into tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a larger rain shield with a band of very heavy rain pushing northward into our area and most of the triangle

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Cloud tops cooling off of the NC coast and pushing inland. Radar starting to fill back in to the east

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Starting to get rotation with these cells on the edge of the death band. If the sun comes out we’re really gonna be in trouble.

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BHS1975 said:
Starting to get rotation with these cells on the edge of the death band. If the sun comes out we’re really gonna be in trouble.

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Headed for parts of SE wake

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Unless other credible models have anything close to the winds the Euro has, I’d expect it to verify way too high based on runs like that for other well inland SE TCs as these inland high wind forecasts appear to be due to a bias.
 
GaWx said:
Unless other credible models have anything close to the winds the Euro has, I’d expect it to verify way too high based on runs like that for other well inland SE TCs as these inland high wind forecasts appear to be due to a bias.
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What the Euro is picking up on and other models catching up, is the mixing that’s going to occur when you gain some elevation causing a tunnel effect between the NE side to the storms and the Blue Ridge.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
What the Euro is picking up on and other models catching up, is the mixing that’s going to occur when you gain some elevation causing a tunnel effect between the NE side to the storms and the Blue Ridge.
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I still think it has a bias based on recent storms but appreciate your reply and maybe it will be right this time. Have other low end TSs in a similar position in the past lead to wind gusts of 50-70 mph in Charlotte and Greenville? I’m talking other than in isolated severe tstorms. Are any other models close to as high as Euro? I’m thinking more like 30-50 is likely in Charlotte and GSP. Those are the cities JB referred to.
 
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Not sure if I am in the clear or not up here. The rain and wind have both stopped. It has been like that all morning.
 
The track of the center is S of CAE, the heaviest rain stays in NC!??! Winning
 
Conditions are noticeably going downhill here as the day progresses, wind consistently gusting up to about 35-40 mph w/ steady light rain. The bands to the east entering Moore and Montgomery counties will likely partially rain themselves out before reaching Charlotte but expecting things to get worse during the overnight hours. Hopefully the trees around here hold up. USGS observing sites peg the storm-total rainfall just over an inch.
 
Several of my friends that chased the storm down in Wilmington are driving west on I-40 trying to get back to Raleigh, the water is so high in the ditches it's just a few inches away from covering the entire road and they barely squeezed past the section of I-40 near Warsaw before it was closed a while ago.
 
Florence is in no hurry to move. looks almost stalled but the advisory has west at 2 mph, and it appears that way if you look closely. Certainly further south than many models portrayed it today, but certainly well north of what the Euro had a few days ago.
 
Here comes the rain again
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a new emotion
 
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